The Boston Celtics made a blunt basketball decision after the Philadelphia 76ers knocked them out in the first round of the playoffs in May: they chose Joe Mazzulla over Jaylen Brown.
That kind of fork in the road usually comes after two straight postseason disappointments, and Boston went with the path most teams avoid by siding with the coach instead of the star. There’s a real argument that the Celtics made the correct call, but the answer won’t fully reveal itself until we see how Boston looks without Brown and how Philadelphia looks with him.
One stat from the X account Basketball University helps explain why Boston moved on. It pointed to Brown’s “Poorest possession value over the last three seasons combined…” and noted that, even with all of his production, he wasn’t as impactful as the raw numbers might suggest when it came to possession value.
Basketball University also laid out what that measure is meant to capture: “Some possession value methodology! Basically it’s meant to be a simple way to show who wins/losses the possession game for their teams”
Brown wasn’t the only name that showed up poorly by that standard. Kevin Durant, one of the best NBA players of all time, graded out even worse. Basketball University explained that result by pointing to the way Durant handles the ball, his rebounding, and the fact that he plays power forward, which means he’s occupying a spot that could otherwise be filled by an average replacement who would help more in that category.
The larger idea fits right in with Mazzulla’s approach. He’s long been tied to “possession maxing,” and that goes beyond just launching a ton of threes, which the Celtics will still do. It also means attacking the glass, taking care of the ball, and forcing turnovers.
That’s why players like Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, on paper, make sense in Mazzulla Ball. And it’s also why Boston could look at Brown’s game, see the production, and still decide he didn’t maximize possessions enough to justify keeping him, even before getting to the fact that they didn’t want to pay him $70 million annually.
Brown’s talent was never the issue. Fit was.
The tricky part is that making the Celtics’ choice sound right can turn into a criticism of Brown, and that doesn’t really tell the whole story. He just put together his best individual season, which says plenty about what he can do when the offense gives him more to carry.
In Philadelphia, Brown won’t be asked to do the same amount. That may be a challenge, but it could also be a better fit for what Nick Nurse wants from him than what Mazzulla did. If Brown can show he can be highly impactful without Jayson Tatum, that would give him plenty of motivation, along with the obvious fact that Boston moved on.
For Boston, possession maxing helped keep the team afloat last year without Tatum, and now he’s back. The Celtics also moved off the one player who wasn’t helping in that department, even if he was still the club’s de facto Alpha Dog.
It’s entirely possible both sides end up feeling good about how this played out.
In Other News...
Clippers Penalties Are Creating A Draft Problem Fans Should Notice
The Celtics have a reason to keep one eye on Los Angeles even while their own roster is front and center. Bostons first-round pick swap with the Clippers in the 2028 draft, acquired in the Jaylen Brown trade to Philadelphia, now sits in the middle of a complicated web of future obligations that could make it far more valuable than it first looked. The swap only fully comes into play depending on where the Clippers and Sixers land in the lottery, but the basic premise is simple enough for Celtics fans: if the Clippers keep sliding, Bostons asset gets more interesting.
The ripple effect does not stop there. Philadelphia also has a 2029 top-three protected pick swap with the Clippers from the James Harden deal, which adds another layer to what could become a long-term draft headache in Los Angeles. With the Clippers expected to decline in the standings, these future picks are starting to look like real trade currency, and that matters in Boston because every extra bit of draft leverage around the league can reshape how teams build, sell, and retool. [Read more 🡒]
Celtics Suddenly Have A Reason To Watch Jalen Duren Closely
Jalen Durens contract situation in Detroit has quietly become one of the more interesting subplots around the league, and it has a Boston angle now too. The Pistons and the young center have been stuck for months in extension talks, with Duren reportedly looking for more than $40 million per season while Detroit has been reluctant to go beyond $35 million.
For the Celtics, the importance of the stalemate has less to do with Duren himself than with what could come next. If the impasse pushes him toward a one-year qualifying offer and unrestricted free agency next summer, his market could shift quickly, and there is already speculation that the Clippers may be in the mix. Any movement there would ripple beyond Detroit and Los Angeles, because it could also alter the value of a future draft pick Boston is holding. [Read more 🡒]
Celtics Fans Suddenly Have A Real Reason To Watch The Clippers
The NBAs punishment of the Clippers has suddenly given Celtics fans a new team to track, even if the effect is more long-term than immediate. Los Angeles was stripped of five first-round picks from 2029 through 2033, a major setback for a franchise that now has less flexibility to keep replenishing its roster and staying competitive at a high level.
For Boston, the direct asset is still the 2028 first-round pick swap with the Clippers, and that part of the deal is untouched. But if the Clippers have a harder time improving over the next few seasons, the Celtics could end up with a more favorable outcome when that swap comes due, which is why the standings in Los Angeles suddenly matter a little more in Boston than they did before. In the meantime, the rest of the league kept moving too, with Houston locking up Amen Thompson and Sacramento taking a flyer on Ben Simmons. [Read more 🡒]