The 40-before-20 club for the 2025-2026 NBA season is officially set, and it's shaping up to be a thrilling race to the championship. With the Boston Celtics falling to the Denver Nuggets recently, only three teams meet the legendary Phil Jackson's benchmark for serious title contenders.
For those unfamiliar, Jackson's rule suggests that a championship-caliber team should notch 40 wins before suffering 20 losses. This principle highlights teams that build strong habits over a grueling regular season, securing enough wins to keep their energy intact for the playoffs.
Historically, over 90 percent of champions in the last 46 years have achieved this milestone. So, who are the 40-before-20 teams this season?
We have the reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the surprising Eastern Conference leaders, the Detroit Pistons, and the rapidly improving San Antonio Spurs. According to the 40-before-20 rule, one of these squads is likely to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
However, it's important to remember that this rule isn't foolproof. The NBA's modern landscape has seen lower-seeded teams make deep playoff runs.
In recent years, we've seen a No. 8 seed (the 2023 Miami Heat), a No. 5 seed (the 2024 Dallas Mavericks), and a No. 4 seed (the 2025 Indiana Pacers) reach the Finals. While none claimed the title, the Pacers came heartbreakingly close, with a Game 7 injury to Tyrese Haliburton altering their fate.
The point is, making it to the Finals gives any team a shot at glory, regardless of their regular-season record. While the 40-before-20 rule remains a solid indicator, it's not an absolute guarantee.
This season might just be the year an outlier team takes the crown. Let's look at a few teams that didn't hit the 40-before-20 mark but still have championship aspirations.
First up, the Denver Nuggets. With three-time MVP Nikola Jokić leading the charge, Denver is always a threat.
This season, they've built arguably their strongest roster yet. Health has been a hurdle, but if they can stay fit, the Nuggets could reach their full potential.
Then there are the Boston Celtics. Despite a transitional year, they've stayed near the top of the Eastern Conference.
With standout performances from Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and an improved Payton Pritchard, they remain dangerous. If Jayson Tatum returns in time for the playoffs, Boston could be eyeing another title run.
Finally, don't overlook the New York Knicks. Led by Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks have been on a tear, winning 12 of their last 16 games. Their recent form suggests they could be serious contenders, especially after narrowly missing the Finals last season.
If this is the year for a non-40-before-20 team to win it all, these three squads are strong candidates to defy the odds.