CHARLESTON - The Celtics are already trying to get a read on what the NBA will look like this season, and Joe Mazzulla’s answer keeps coming back to the same place: the league changes because teams change, and teams change because the league changes.
That’s the chess match Mazzulla was describing before practice in Charleston on Sunday morning. He pointed to recent league-wide shifts like offensive rebounding and backcourt pressure, then made clear that the first real clues usually arrive once the games start.
“You try to a little bit,” Mazzulla said. “I mean, obviously, the last couple of years, it was the offensive rebounding, it was the backcourt pressure, those types of things.
And so, you try to, based on the rosters. But at the same time, you really find that out in the first 10, 15, 20 games, really.”
Boston has spent plenty of time living in that world. Last season, the Celtics attacked the glass from the corners, with players like Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh spacing to the 3-point line before crashing toward the free-throw line when a shot went up. With the number of 3s teams are launching now, rebounds are bouncing farther out and becoming harder to read, which makes that extra body or two near the lane even more valuable.
The numbers back up how much the game has shifted. Boston grabbed 12.5 offensive rebounds per game last season, good for seventh in the league.
As a league, teams averaged 11.4 offensive boards a night, the highest mark since the 2004-25 season, when the average was 12.0. The league had also tied that 12.0 figure in 2011-12.
The 3-point volume tells the same story. In 2004-05, teams averaged 15.8 3-point attempts per game.
In 2011-12, that number was 18.4. Last season, it had climbed all the way to 37.0.
Backcourt pressure has become another part of the modern arms race, with the Oklahoma City Thunder setting the tone through constant ball pressure and physicality.
But the picture is even messier this year because the league has been turned over by roster movement. Jordan Walsh said that makes the future harder to read.
“I definitely can't predict what's next,” Walsh said. “I feel like, especially with this summer, with all the trades and moves that happened, it's kind of way more unpredictable than it was when I came in. I feel like when I came in, you're like, alright, Giannis [Antetokounmpo] is in Milwaukee, JB [ Jaylen Brown ], JT [ Jayson Tatum ] here with Boston, we're gonna have to watch out for them every year.
“But now so many things have been moved around and changed, it's kind of like you don't know what to expect. Feel like there's less tanking teams, and we feel like there's going to be more teams that are trying to be competitive. So, I think that's kind of where it's different.”
The list of reshuffled contenders is long. Brown and LeBron James are on the Philadelphia 76ers.
Kawhi Leonard is on the Toronto Raptors. Antetokounmpo is on the Miami Heat.
The Charlotte Hornets gave up LaMelo Ball, and he just joined Anthony Edwards on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Tyrese Haliburton is healthy again, the Portland Trail Blazers traded for Ja Morant, and the Los Angeles Lakers reshaped their entire roster around Luka Doncic.
That kind of movement changes more than the standings. It can change how teams play. New faces in new places can tilt offenses toward the half court, speed up the pace, or force different defensive priorities.
“I think you can start to see certain trends before,” Payton Pritchard said. “The way the game's going, pace of play, maybe how guys are becoming more efficient.”
The Indiana Pacers are one example of where the game can go, having reached the NBA Finals with their run-and-gun style. They just need their head of the snake back.
There’s also the league office to account for. The NBA tweaks how games are officiated every season, and this year the focus includes off-arm push-offs. Mazzulla said the Celtics get a chance to prepare for those points of emphasis because referees come to practice and explain how they’ll call things.
“I think the other piece to it, and thankful the NBA allows the referees to come into practice, is obviously [the] different points of emphasis, how they're going to call some of the points of emphasis there,” Mazzulla said. “I mean, it's also that adjustment, too, which will be based on how you're allowed to play the game. So, you try to anticipate that as much as you can, and then you have a feeling-out process of it.”
Even with all that planning, Boston also knows there’s another way to approach the problem: become the team everybody else is chasing.
“At the end of the day, you've got to mix in some of that and also do what you're really good at, and maybe you become the new trend,” Pritchard said. “So, I think it's a balance, and I think we're in a good place, and we're gelling right now.”
Mazzulla put it more bluntly.
“Yeah, for sure. Yeah.
I mean, I think, at the end of the day, it's basketball, so there's not a ton of things,” Mazzulla said. “But if you're trying to find something small that you can, then yeah, you can try to do that.”
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