Jayson Tatum’s road back to the top of the NBA conversation may look different now, but the opening is still there.
What started as a comeback from an Achilles injury late in the 2025-26 season turned into something messier for Boston. Tatum had enough time to work back into shape before the playoffs, and the Celtics looked capable of making another deep run without him. Instead, the season ended with a collapse: Boston blew a 3-1 lead to the 76ers in the first round, and Tatum was out for Game 7 with a knee injury.
Then came the offseason shocker. The Celtics split up Tatum and Jaylen Brown, sending Brown to Philadelphia in a deal that brought back Paul George and multiple draft picks. For the first time in Tatum’s career, he’ll be doing this without Brown - the 2024 NBA Finals MVP - alongside him.
That change raises obvious questions about how Tatum looks as the lone center of gravity, but it also gives him a cleaner runway. The 28-year-old now has a real chance to chase more than a title in 2026-27. He could also put himself in the mix for the league’s top individual prize.
The clearest boost to Tatum’s MVP case is simple: the Celtics are his team now.
Boston made its intentions obvious after moving Brown. The franchise didn’t want two huge salaries complicating the books, and it chose flexibility. More important for Tatum’s standing, the Celtics made clear they see him as the face of the franchise, present and future.
Paul George didn’t leave much room for debate after arriving.
"I'm here to help JT. He's the guy," George said at his introductory press conference.
"I've played alongside another superstar wing, and we coexisted beautifully. So, I see that with myself.
I see that with JT, being able to play off him, being able to help him, being able to kind of still be a mentor. I can play off another superstar wing and still be a presence."
Tatum’s production has already been in that elite neighborhood. From 2021-25, he averaged 27.7 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists, while making the All-NBA First Team in each of those four seasons.
He also finished in the top six in MVP voting every year in that stretch, even if he never quite felt like the clear favorite. With the Brown debate gone, those numbers may land with a little more force.
Boston’s team context could help too. The Celtics are still expected to win plenty of games, even after the summer changes.
The Sporting News' Stephen Noh projected a 54-28 finish, The Athletic's Jay King had them at 57-25, and ESPN landed at 51 wins. If Boston gets to 50 wins, that would strengthen Tatum’s case in a major way.
The path to a high seed also looks open enough for Boston to take advantage. In a conference loaded with question marks, the Celtics have a real shot at the No. 1 spot.
The Knicks are the defending champs, but Boston took Mitchell Robinson away from them. New York also shut down contract talks with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, which could create problems later.
The Pistons still have to prove last season’s leap wasn’t a one-year spike. The 76ers changed a lot, but building chemistry takes time.
And it’s still unclear whether the Heat have the right role players around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.
Even with the offseason overhaul, Boston still has the kind of setup that should keep wins rolling under Joe Mazzulla. And this is a regular-season award.
Of course, Tatum isn’t the only name in the MVP mix. The biggest pushback against him is that he doesn’t sit in the same tier as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama. Those three could easily end up as the top MVP vote-getters in some order.
But health could muddy that picture. A player has to appear in at least 65 games to qualify for the award, and all three had injury issues last season that nearly kept them from reaching that mark. Wembanyama played in 64 regular-season games, though his NBA Cup final appearance counted toward the total.
There’s also the matter of timing and narrative. Wembanyama is chasing his first MVP, while Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic have already won it multiple times. If teams have to choose between protecting a nagging injury and hitting the 65-game threshold, they’ll probably lean toward rest.
And even if those stars stay eligible, Tatum may have something else working for him: a story voters can latch onto. Voter fatigue may not always be admitted out loud, but it can still shape these races.
At the very least, Tatum and the Celtics look positioned to give the league a compelling one.
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