Boston Celtics training camp is still a few weeks away, but the questions around this roster are already lined up and waiting. The most obvious place to start is health, because this team’s ceiling depends on it in a way that goes beyond the usual wishful thinking.
Jayson Tatum is the big one. He’s entering his first full season on a surgically-repaired Achilles Tendon, and while there doesn’t seem to be much concern about his recovery, the best version of this season would be Tatum looking fully durable and handling most back-to-backs. A normal workload of around 75 games would be the sweet spot.
Then there’s Mitchell Robinson and Paul George, and the bar is different for both. Robinson’s best-case number is 60 games, which is what he played last season for the Knicks.
George’s best-case feels more like 50-55. If Boston can get that kind of availability from both players and still have them ready for a playoff run, that changes the picture in a real way.
For Boston to hit its highest gear, though, Tatum has to do more than score. He can absolutely average 30 points per game, and he may need to, but the real best-case version is him setting a new career high in assists.
His best mark so far has been six per game. If he can turn a couple of those three-point looks into passes instead, this becomes a much more efficient version of Tatum than the one Boston has seen before.
That also means trimming the three-point volume a bit. Seven attempts a game feels like the right ceiling, with some of those early pull-up tries turning into drives and possible assists instead.
The key is making the right play, even if that sometimes comes down to a coin flip. In recent seasons, Tatum has leaned more toward choosing the shot.
If that tilts even slightly the other way, it can set off a chain reaction for the rest of the roster.
Derrick White is another huge piece of the best-case story. More catch-and-shoot chances should help him get back to a stronger three-point percentage, and that matters because White is one of the main drivers of Boston’s ideal outcome. If his shot comes back, it eases the burden on Tatum and opens the floor for everybody else.
The Celtics also need one of Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, or Jordan Walsh to pull away from the group at some point. There’s room for everyone in certain situations, but a team works best when the rotation settles into eight or nine clear pieces instead of trying to go 11 or 12 deep. Scheierman making enough of a leap to become a consistent starter would be especially useful, since it could push Sam Hauser to the bench and give Brad Stevens another player worth discussing in trade talks down the line.
Payton Pritchard, meanwhile, still fits best as the sixth man. The Celtics need to stagger their ball-handlers, and Mike Conley isn’t really a realistic regular option anymore. In this version of the season, Pritchard’s shooting climbs back to about 40 percent from three, and a little extra efficiency plus foul drawing gets him above 20 points per game.
If everything clicks, Boston could also become a monster on the glass. Robinson, Neemias Queta, and Tatum would give the Celtics a defensive rebounding edge that fuels the whole operation. That means more chances to run, more easy looks at the rim, and more trips to the line.
Stack all that together and you’re looking at a team that can push for a top-three seed in the East and win about 55 games. Last year’s 56-win total came with a few extra games inflated by tanking around the league, so a 2027 Celtics team clearing 50 wins would still be a major accomplishment.
Of course, the other side of this is pretty simple: if the good stuff doesn’t happen, things get messy fast.
The biggest worry is White losing his shot and never really getting it back. That would force Boston into a hard conversation about a player who does so many other things well, especially with a $30-plus million contract hanging over it in the second apron era. White matters too much for that kind of decline to be easy to absorb.
There is at least one possible escape hatch there. Resetting the repeater tax this season could soften the blow if the shooting goes away, since the Celtics could go over the tax line the following year and face a much more manageable bill.
Another problem would be Gonzalez standing still. He’s viewed as a premium prospect, and future good Celtics teams are imagined with him in the starting lineup.
Nobody is expecting a huge leap right away, but Boston needs some sign of progress. Simply repeating last season would not be enough, and any regression would be a real issue.
Style matters too, even if it sits a little lower on the list. Boston being the slowest team in the league again would be a problem.
It isn’t the biggest concern, but it does need to improve. The Celtics have to get stops and get out in transition more than hardly ever.
If the young wings don’t move forward, White can’t shoot, and the offense stays stuck in slow, half-court mode, Boston could still be good in the regular season. But in a crowded East, good might not be enough to avoid a road series to open the playoffs, or even a play-in spot. That style also doesn’t project well in the postseason, which would leave Brad Stevens answering the same kinds of questions again in early May.
The most likely outcome, though, is still somewhere in the middle. Boston probably isn’t in danger of falling apart.
Robinson should help, Tatum should look very good, and most of these players should be at least as effective as they were last season. But a few breaks in either direction could end up deciding just how far this group goes.
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Jared Sullingers basketball journey has reached its next chapter, with the former Celtics first-round pick announcing his retirement from professional play at 34. After a career that took him from Boston to stops in the NBA and overseas, Sullinger is now moving into the next phase of the sport, joining Ohio State University as director of player development.
Sullingers retirement statement was heavy on gratitude, with thanks extended to his family, coaches and the teams that helped shape his path. For Celtics fans, it also brings a little reflection on a player whose time in Boston arrived with real promise, and whose career ended earlier than many expected after he had spent years trying to extend it across different leagues and continents. [Read more 🡒]