If the Boston Celtics are going to do anything meaningful when spring arrives, somebody is going to have to rise above what’s expected. Not just get better. Make a real jump.
That’s the difference here. A leap has to be obvious.
Payton Pritchard going from 17 points per game to 20 would be nice. Pritchard at 25?
That’s the kind of change that turns heads.
It also has to come from someone with room left to grow. Jayson Tatum can come back and average 30 points per game again, and plenty of people would welcome that.
But he’s done it before, so it doesn’t really fit the idea of a classic leap. The same logic knocks out most of the older names in the mix.
Neemias Queta, at 27, is a little different because he was a late bloomer and made a huge jump last season. He had far more runway than he’d ever had before, thanks to getting more minutes in one season than in all of his previous seasons combined. He could improve again, but after what he already did, it’s hard to picture him producing the biggest leap on the roster.
The group of players 28 and older doesn’t really feel like the answer. Pritchard can still get better, but not in the massive way this question demands.
Sam Hauser is pretty much established. Mitchell Robinson is too.
Tatum’s next leap would have to be all the way to “best player in the NBA,” and that’s not the bet here. Derrick White, Paul George, and Mike Conley are all 30-somethings, so they’re out of the discussion.
That narrows the field to Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, Amari Williams, Baylor Scheierman, Ron Harper Jr., and Luka Garza. Chris Cenac Jr. isn’t included because he’s a rookie and there’s no baseline yet.
Garza already had his leap last season, and it came because he actually got regular run. He played more minutes last year than he had in all four of his previous seasons combined.
He did his job well, but there’s a sense that he’s already squeezed out most of what he can offer. A lot of his value comes from effort, and it’s hard to imagine him trying any harder than he already did.
Williams has talent, but the path to a huge leap is complicated by opportunity. He may not get enough chances to move past the players ahead of him, and that limits the ceiling of his case.
For him to truly make the biggest jump on the team, he’d have to climb over Queta, Robinson, or Garza. The effort piece matters too.
The standard here is clear: when things get confusing, he needs to keep pushing instead of slowing down and going passive.
That’s why the wing group looks like the real battleground. White, Tatum, and either Robinson or Queta are locked into starting spots.
George will start when healthy, but that only figures to happen about half the time. That leaves one starting job available, and that’s where the opportunity opens up.
Walsh, Gonzalez, Scheierman, and Harper Jr. all have a case for those minutes. Harper Jr. can help, and he can defend, but he doesn’t really have one elite trait that separates him from the pack.
He should be solid and can have good nights, but when you’re trying to identify the biggest leap, you want a player with a clear calling card. Harper Jr. doesn’t stand out that way.
Walsh may be the best pure defender of the bunch, but his offense still has work to do. That hurts him and helps him at the same time.
If the offensive growth shows up, he’s absolutely in the conversation. The doubt is simple enough: if that kind of leap were coming, there might already have been more visible progress by now.
Still, it can’t be ruled out.
The shooting numbers matter a lot here, especially from the corners. Whoever wins this role will see plenty of corner-three chances, and that’s where the separation begins.
Walsh shot 37.8% from the corners, one of the worst marks among Celtics who logged more than a thousand minutes. Gonzalez was at 40.7%, which was fine.
Scheierman, though, hit 49.4%, trailing only Pritchard’s 52.4%.
Gonzalez is the most naturally gifted of the group. He does things that make you stop and wonder how he even saw the play develop.
That kind of talent means a leap can happen at any moment. It also means you can feel like you’re waiting on a machine to hit.
When it does, it could pay off big. The problem is that his rookie-year shooting and turnover issues need to improve dramatically.
Scheierman, though, looks like the best blend of the things that matter most. He started last season unevenly like the others, but he finished with confidence and momentum.
In 28 games after the All-Star break, he had more assists and nearly as many rebounds as he did in 49 games before the break. That late surge fits the profile of someone ready for a bigger move.
Over that same stretch, Gonzalez and Walsh saw their minutes shrink.
Scheierman may also have the cleanest path into the starting lineup this season, and that gives him an edge right away. With George expected to miss plenty of time and no obvious challenger directly in front of him, the door is open. Among all the candidates, he looks like the one best positioned to take advantage and make the biggest leap.
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