The Celtics head to Charlotte on Friday for another NBA Cup group game, and the matchup comes with all the ingredients for Boston to make life miserable for the Hornets. Charlotte has dropped five in a row, and the injury situation only makes the climb steeper.
Boston enters at 6-2, including a 5-0 mark at home and 1-2 on the road. Charlotte is 3-6, with a 2-3 home record and a 1-3 road mark. This is the first of four meetings between the teams this season, and the Hornets are already trying to stop the bleeding after a 114-104 loss in Brooklyn on Wednesday and a 124-91 home loss to Detroit two nights earlier.
The Celtics are coming off a 109-102 win over Milwaukee at home, a game they finished without Jayson Tatum because he was resting. Boston built a 22-point cushion, watched it shrink, and still found a way to close it out.
Two nights before that, the Celtics fell 109-93 in Houston. Even with the uneven stretch, Boston’s profile still looks strong: eighth in offense, seventh in defense, and a +6.6 net rating.
Charlotte’s numbers tell a much rougher story. The Hornets’ offense is last in the league, their defense sits 19th, and their net rating is -11.2.
The turnover battle could make the night even uglier for them. Charlotte’s 20.1% turnover rate is the worst in the NBA, and opponents are turning those mistakes into 21.9 points per game, the third-worst mark in the league.
That’s exactly the kind of weakness Boston can punish, especially with the Celtics ranking among the league’s best at forcing turnovers.
There’s also the question of whether Boston can avoid the kind of late-game wobble that has shown up before. The Hornets’ offense has been struggling badly, and the Celtics’ defense should be able to build a comfortable lead. The bigger test may come after that, when the rotations tighten and the clock gets into that 9:00-to-7:00 window in the fourth quarter, where Boston has had trouble holding leads.
Brandon Miller is the main name to keep in check. His true shooting percentage has fallen to 47%, fueled by a rough 26.7% mark from three and 45.7% from two. The idea is simple: keep him away from the corner, make him work at the rim, and force the Hornets to lean on limited alternatives.
The Celtics would also benefit from getting their guards back on track as shooters. If Boston starts Queta, that could help open the floor and create more vertical spacing.
And with this being a cup game, there’s extra reason to keep the pressure on. Tatum also has a history of enjoying games in Charlotte, where he can put on a show for his Duke fans.
Tony Brothers, Marat Kogut, and Brent Haskill will officiate the game. Boston looks positioned to keep the pressure on from the opening tip, and the prediction here is a Celtics blowout, 121-96.
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The common thread has been hard to miss for anyone tracking the rotations and the defensive possessions that follow. Bostons late-game issues have shown up most clearly on the perimeter, where opponents have been able to generate the kind of looks that fuel comeback runs, and the lineup combinations used in those stretches are starting to draw scrutiny for whether they are holding up well enough when the legs get heavy. [Read more 🡒]