The loudest “all-in” voices usually stop the conversation at the star. They see Giannis Antetokounmpo and assume the answer ends there. But the real cost of chasing him would have been much bigger than swapping one player for another.
The missing piece in that debate is the pile of first-round picks Boston would have had to send out. Future firsts don’t hit the cap, and front offices treat them like gold because they can turn into stars, or at least into the kind of assets that help you land one. That’s why the trade conversation can’t just be about Giannis versus Paul George, Hugo Gonzalez, and Baylor Scheierman.
Yes, Antetokounmpo is the better player. That much is obvious, and he would have been a better return than George, Hugo Gonzalez, and Baylor Scheierman.
But that was never the full equation. The reported three-year super max Boston was prepared to give Giannis could have become an albatross later, and the draft compensation on top of it was steep: 4 to 6 first-round picks, including a very valuable 2028 first-round pick, an unprotected 2031 first-round pick, and 1 to 3 future Celtics first-rounders.
Put it all together and the choice starts to look different. The question becomes Giannis, or George plus Hugo, Baylor, Chris Cenac Jr., and 3 to 5 future first-round picks. Another way to frame it: Giannis versus George and 7 to 8 first-rounders, counting Celtics draftees from 2024-2026 and future picks.
That’s before you even get to the contract wrinkle around Jaylen Brown. George is already a negative asset, and the 76ers reportedly would have had to include a first-rounder just to dump him.
That’s part of why Brad Stevens and company were reportedly uneasy about giving Brown an additional $142 million this summer. If Boston’s return for Brown last Thursday felt light, the price in a deal after that extension would have been even harder to stomach.
And if Philadelphia had been taking back Brown on that huge new five-year contract, it’s hard to see the Sixers handing over those two highly valuable first-round picks. The risk would have been too much.
Even if you’re not sold on Hugo, Baylor, or Cenac Jr., the draft cost alone should give pause. If Giannis got hurt, Boston could have been left exposed while Milwaukee was collecting what could have been future Celtics difference-makers with those picks.
There’s also the reality that front offices don’t get to make these calls with hindsight. Stevens and the Celtics might have gone all-in if they somehow knew no other team valued Brown, with his contract, very highly.
But that kind of perfect read on the market almost never exists. Usually there’s at least one team willing to overpay, or at least one general manager you can work around.
That’s why the old “close the deal” logic can be dangerous. Boston fans have seen versions of this before.
When the Celtics traded Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie Irving, the outrage wasn’t really about the right thing. The danger was that Boston was giving up the last of those Brooklyn picks after already landing Brown and Tatum with consecutive drafts.
The pick didn’t become a top-3 selection, so the deal isn’t remembered as the chance to draft Luka Doncic, but it was still a lottery pick.
The Celtics also traded away the chance to pair Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the Jays and the rest of that young core. Cleveland passed on Shai for Collin Sexton, but Boston still moved off a chance at another major talent.
That’s the larger point here. If you believe Brown was worth far more than what the 76ers reportedly got for him, then you should also understand why Boston might have walked away from the Giannis deal.
The Celtics would be better this season with Antetokounmpo than with George. But if getting Giannis meant Brown, Hugo, Baylor, possibly Queta, and four first-round picks, there’s a real argument that Boston is better off not forcing the issue.
The Clippers tried the same “all-in” approach when they pushed to get George from Oklahoma City. Seven years later, they still haven’t won anything and are starting over again, while the Thunder built a championship team around the player they got in Shai and the mountain of picks the Clippers surrendered.
That’s the cautionary tale. No one is saying Boston got a great haul for Brown. But if the price to “close the deal” on Giannis was that much higher, the Celtics may have avoided a move that could have left them in a much worse spot.
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