Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame odds are throwing some strange numbers at a few former and current Celtics, and the results for Jayson Tatum and Al Horford stand out right away.
The highest Hall probability for any player who has worn a Celtics uniform belongs to Kyrie Irving, who checks in at 97.55%. That tracks with the resume: nine All-Star selections, three All-NBA nods, and the unforgettable Finals shot he hit for the Cavaliers in 2016.
After that, though, the list starts to get weird.
Tatum comes next at 59.61%, a figure that feels awfully low for a player who already has five All-NBA selections, including four first-team honors, six All-Star appearances, and the distinction of being the best player on a title team. He’s still not even 30.
Horford’s number is even harder to buy. Basketball Reference gives him a 26.45% chance, despite a 19-year NBA career, six All-Star selections, an All-NBA berth, a Finals win, and an All-Defense honor. Add in his two NCAA national championships, and he looks a lot closer to a sure thing than a long shot.
Jaylen Brown is listed even lower, at 8.5%, which is tough to square with what he’s already accomplished. Brown won ECF and Finals MVP in 2024, has made two All-NBA teams and six All-Star teams, and he’s only 29.
If he walked away today, he’d already have a respectable Hall case. With more years ahead of him, the odds feel far too modest.
Jrue Holiday is the only other Celtic above 1%, and even his 1.67% mark feels stingy. Holiday has two All-Star selections, six All-Defense teams, and two championships with two different teams. At 36, he’s got an uphill climb, but not one that looks impossible if he strings together a few more strong seasons.
These projections aren’t exact science, and the final decision always belongs to the voters. Still, based on the players already in Springfield, these Celtics numbers look like they should all be higher.
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