A lot of the conversation around the Celtics since the Jaylen Brown trade has revolved around one idea: sure, they can pile up regular-season wins, but are they really built to survive the playoffs?
ESPN’s latest BPI projection pushes back on that pretty hard.
The Basketball Power Index has Boston pegged as the fourth-best team in the regular season, second in the Eastern Conference behind only the Knicks, and fifth in the title picture overall. At the very top, the Thunder are given a 28% chance to win the championship and the Spurs sit at 22%. After that, the gap tightens fast: the 76ers are at 9%, the Knicks at 8%, and the Celtics right behind them at 7%.
That clustering matters. It points to an East that looks like a three-team race, with Philadelphia, New York, and Boston sitting much closer together than the public debate suggests.
And once you zoom in a little, Boston’s position looks even more workable. The Sixers are leaning on an oft-injured Joel Embiid, the Knicks are trying to become the first team to go back-to-back since the Warriors, and Boston’s rivals around the conference all carry their own baggage. The Celtics may not be the clear-cut favorite, but they are very much in the thick of it.
That’s why the “no playoff equity” talk feels overblown. The Celtics’ recent reputation has been warped by last season’s blown 3-1 lead, but that one collapse shouldn’t erase the bigger picture of the last decade, when this team has repeatedly gone on deep postseason runs.
Brown’s departure has also been used as a shortcut for explaining why Boston supposedly won’t hold up when the games tighten. But the source of that doubt doesn’t really match what happened on the floor.
Brown wasn’t carrying the Celtics through the playoffs while everyone else let him down. In fact, when Jayson Tatum was out, Brown had trouble keeping the team afloat.
His ability to create and hit difficult shots did not offset the inefficient offense, the ball-stopping, the turnovers, and the poor off-ball defense.
The numbers are catching up to that reality faster than the broader NBA conversation is.
What Boston has going for it is a high floor. A strong regular season should put the Celtics in position for a good seed, and that matters.
Home-court advantage and a favorable path can change everything in the postseason. If the depth around the stars clicks, there’s real upside here without the same level of risk that hangs over some of the East’s other contenders.
And those rivals are carrying plenty of uncertainty. The Knicks have to prove they can repeat their magic.
The Sixers have to stay healthy and actually mesh. Kawhi has to channel 2019 Kawhi.
The Pistons or Cavs would need a major playoff leap. The Pacers would have to get back to where they were before Haliburton’s injury.
Boston is somehow the team drawing the harshest skepticism of the bunch. That says more about the standard the Celtics have built during the Jayson Tatum era than it does about their actual chances.
Last season ended badly. No one’s denying that. But this is a new year, and the Celtics have every reason to believe they can answer the doubts in a big way.
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Jayson Tatum Sees One Immediate Difference With Celtics Big Man
Mitchell Robinson is already giving the Celtics something they have long valued in the frontcourt, and Jayson Tatum noticed the difference quickly. After signing a three-year contract with Boston, Robinson brings a reputation for defensive disruption, physical rebounding and the kind of interior presence that can change how opponents attack the rim.
Tatum pointed to Robinson's defensive skills, his work on the glass and the broader impact he can have on the group, which fits neatly with what Boston has wanted from its big men. Robinson has built his name as one of the league's better offensive rebounders, and the Celtics will be counting on that edge to show up every night, especially once the games start to tighten and the margin for error gets smaller. [Read more 🡒]
Jayson Tatum Already Sounds Comfortable With A New Celtics Frontcourt Fit
Bostons final training camp practice in Charleston, South Carolina, offered a first real glimpse of how Jayson Tatum is beginning to mesh with a new frontcourt partner. With the season inching closer, Tatum spent some time discussing Mitchell Robinson and the way the Celtics can lean into his defensive presence, rebounding and screening to make the half-court offense and the overall lineup structure feel more natural.
For Tatum, the fit appears to be about more than just rim protection. He sounded comfortable with the idea of Robinson helping set the tone on both ends, and that matters for a team trying to sort out its rotations and maximize the forwards and centers around him. The early read is encouraging, even if the real test will come once the Celtics start facing live pressure and have to turn those camp impressions into something repeatable. [Read more 🡒]
Celtics Are Suddenly Linked To A Knicks Move Fans Didn't Expect
The Celtics already made one notable Knicks-related splash this offseason by bringing in center Mitchell Robinson, and now their front office is being tied to another big name from New York. This time it is Karl-Anthony Towns, whose contract situation has quietly become a talking point around the league as Boston looks for ways to keep stacking talent around its core.
A Towns deal would not be simple and it would not come cheap, but the fit is easy to understand for a team that values spacing, size and versatility. The possibility only exists if contract talks in New York go sideways, which remains a long shot given the Knicks recent championship, but the mere mention of Boston in that conversation is enough to make the idea worth watching. [Read more 🡒]