Team USA’s Goaltending Dilemma: Swayman vs. Hellebuyck, and Why the Numbers Matter
Heading into the Olympic break, it seemed like a lock: Connor Hellebuyck, fresh off a Hart and Vezina sweep, was penciled in as Team USA’s starting goaltender. His resume is hard to argue with - last season, he was the best goalie on the planet. But fast forward to now, and the picture isn’t quite as clear.
Let’s start with the recent numbers. Hellebuyck has hit a rough patch, allowing three or more goals in five straight games before the Olympic pause.
His goals-against average sits at 2.79, with a .900 save percentage - not exactly the kind of dominance we saw last year. Jeremy Swayman, meanwhile, hasn’t been lights-out either in his last few starts, but his season-long stats (2.92 GAA, .903 SV%) are right there with Hellebuyck’s.
Jake Oettinger, the third name in the mix, trails slightly with a .897 save percentage.
So, what gives? On paper, there’s not a massive gap between the three. But context matters - and Swayman’s situation in Boston adds a layer of intrigue.
Swayman has been under siege most nights, facing a heavy workload behind a Bruins team that’s leaned on him to stay in the playoff hunt. And he's delivered.
According to Money Puck’s advanced metrics, Swayman ranks fourth among NHL goaltenders in goals saved above expected (GSAx) at 16.2. That’s a huge number - and a strong indicator of just how much he’s elevating the team in front of him.
For comparison, Hellebuyck sits 20th with 7.2 GSAx, while Oettinger is further back at 48th with -1.0.
These aren’t just empty stats. They paint a picture of Swayman not only holding his own but thriving in tough conditions. Without him, Boston likely isn’t sniffing the playoff picture.
And let’s not forget the recent international resume. Swayman backstopped Team USA to its first World Championship gold in 92 years this past spring, posting a stellar 1.69 GAA and a .921 save percentage. That’s the kind of clutch performance that matters when you’re talking Olympic pressure.
So where does that leave us? Well, Team USA head coach Mike Sullivan hasn’t tipped his hand.
When asked about the goaltending situation, he kept things close to the vest: “Performance matters,” he said. Hellebuyck added, “We’ll know soon enough.”
That doesn’t tell us much - but it does open the door.
Right now, Hellebuyck appears to be the frontrunner. At Monday’s Team USA practice, he held down his own crease while Swayman and Oettinger split the other net.
That kind of setup usually points to the starter. And given Hellebuyck’s track record - including helping the U.S. come within one goal of gold at last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off - it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets the nod in Game 1.
But if Sullivan is serious about performance, the decision shouldn’t be automatic.
Swayman has earned a look. Whether it’s one of the round-robin games or a spot start to shake things up, he’s shown he can deliver on the big stage. And if Hellebuyck stumbles early, don’t be shocked if Swayman gets the call - and makes the most of it.
Team USA has three strong goaltenders, but only one net to fill. Right now, the numbers - and the moment - might be leaning toward the guy who’s already proven he can carry a team when it matters most.