The Bruins are still near the top of the Atlantic Division standings, but if you peel back the layers, the picture isn’t nearly as pretty. Post-Thanksgiving, Boston is banged up, worn down, and leaning way too hard on the brilliance of Jeremy Swayman to keep things from unraveling.
The schedule’s been relentless, injuries are stacking up, and the penalty kill is being asked to do far too much. And while the standings say “contender,” the numbers under the hood are sounding the alarm - especially when you factor in the latest Thanksgiving Playoff Model, which now puts Boston’s postseason odds at around 40%.
Let’s break it down.
The Goaltending Masking Deeper Issues
Jeremy Swayman has been nothing short of sensational. He’s stealing games, plain and simple - especially against the Rangers and Red Wings.
His positioning is sharp, his rebound control is elite, and his ability to stay composed under pressure is giving Boston a fighting chance every night. But that’s also the problem.
The Bruins are relying on him too much.
Swayman’s play is covering up some serious structural flaws, particularly on the penalty kill. Boston’s PK unit is being pushed to the brink, not just by the volume of penalties, but by the kind of undisciplined infractions that are completely avoidable - interference, hooking, tripping.
The Bruins took five penalties against Detroit and four more against the Rangers. That kind of workload isn’t sustainable, no matter how good your goaltender is.
Injuries and the Scoring Squeeze
The injury list is growing, and it’s hitting key contributors. David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Viktor Arvidsson, and Charlie McAvoy are all dealing with various issues, and their absence is being felt across the board - especially up front, where the scoring has dried up outside of one name: Morgan Geekie.
Geekie is on a heater right now. He’s been Boston’s most consistent offensive presence over the past stretch, with another multi-goal performance to his name.
He’s doing it with pace, confidence, and a nose for the net - and he’s doing it while playing up in the lineup due to all the injuries. But he can’t do it alone.
The Bruins are desperate for someone else to step up. With their top scorers sidelined, secondary scoring has to become primary scoring. That hasn’t happened yet, and it’s putting even more pressure on the defense and goaltending to carry the load.
Penalty Kill Fatigue and 5-on-5 Imbalance
Boston’s penalty kill has been one of the NHL’s best on paper, but it’s being asked to do too much. When you’re killing off four or five penalties a night, even the best units start to crack - especially without key personnel. The constant shorthanded situations are throwing off the team’s rhythm, and it’s affecting their 5-on-5 play.
The Bruins are spending so much time killing penalties that they rarely get into a flow at even strength. That’s a big reason why their 5-on-5 metrics have dipped, and why the offense has stalled outside of Geekie’s contributions.
Bright Spots in the Depth
Despite the chaos, there are some positives. The line featuring Alex Steeves and Mark Kastelic has brought energy and defensive responsibility, giving the Bruins some much-needed depth minutes. Casey Mittelstadt, meanwhile, came through in the clutch with a shootout winner against Detroit - a reminder that this team still has players who can deliver when it matters.
But those flashes need to become trends. The Bruins can’t afford to be a one-line team, especially not with the Eastern Conference tightening up and every point mattering more by the day.
Looking Ahead: Three Games, Big Implications
Boston’s upcoming stretch is no cakewalk. They’ll see Detroit again - a game that could carry some emotional leftovers from their recent matchup.
Then it’s St. Louis, a team clawing its way back toward .500, followed by New Jersey, who’s still dangerous despite dealing with their own injury issues.
The games against Detroit and New Jersey are especially important. These are intra-conference matchups with serious playoff implications.
Win them, and the Bruins can stabilize their position. Lose them, and that 40% playoff projection could dip even lower.
The Bottom Line
Right now, the Bruins are being held together by elite goaltending and flashes of individual brilliance. But that’s not a formula that holds up over an 82-game season - and certainly not into the playoffs.
The penalty issues need to be addressed. The scoring needs to diversify.
And the team needs to find a way to survive this brutal stretch without burning out their best asset in Swayman.
The Bruins are still in the fight. But if they don’t clean up their discipline and find help for Geekie on the scoresheet, they risk letting a promising season slip away.
We’ll be watching closely next week as the captaincy conversation heats up and the Bruins try to get their house in order before things spiral further.
Stay locked in. This stretch could define the season.