The race for the Group of Six playoff spot is going to feel different this season, and not just because the College Football Playoff is still using a 12-team format. Conference realignment has reshaped the landscape, especially with the Mountain West and the return of the Pac-12, which now has eight teams but is not considered a power conference. That effectively turns the Group of Five into the Group of Six, and with five automatic bids going to the highest-ranked conference champions, at least one of those spots is reserved for a team from outside the power structure.
That makes the 2026 chase wide open, and a few programs stand out right away.
UNLV is one of them. Dan Mullen delivered a 10-win season in his first year in Las Vegas, and now he gets a real chance to push the Rebels into the playoff conversation in Year 2.
Mullen’s offense was one of the most explosive in the country last season, and the roster got a boost this offseason with Auburn transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold, who brings Power Four experience. The Rebels also added more firepower at the skill spots, and they should open the year as the Mountain West favorites.
Their Week Zero meeting with Memphis looms large, because that game could carry major weight in the Group of Six playoff race.
Boise State is never far from the discussion, and that’s true again here. The Broncos had a down year by their standards at 9-5, but Spencer Danielson still has a team that looks built to contend.
In fact, Boise State is the betting favorite among all Group of Six teams to reach the playoff. Maddux Madsen is back after starting 25 games and helping the Broncos reach the playoff in 2024, and he’ll have a dangerous backfield behind him with Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines.
After winning the Mountain West in each of the past three seasons, Boise State is moving to the new Pac-12, where plenty of familiar names await. The nonconference schedule is no soft landing either, with games against Oregon and Memphis.
UTSA also belongs in the mix. Jeff Traylor is heading into his seventh season as head coach and still hasn’t posted a losing record.
The Roadrunners return quarterback Owen McCown, who has thrown for more than 6,400 yards and 55 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and he’ll be paired with running back Will Henderson III, who rushed for more than 800 yards last year as the team’s second option out of the backfield. With so much turnover elsewhere in the American Conference and several coaches leaving programs that usually sit near the top, this could be the year UTSA finally makes a real run at the playoff picture.
Memphis is another team worth watching closely, even with major changes of its own. Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas, and 85 players from last year’s roster entered the transfer portal.
Charles Huff is now in charge, and he inherits a roster with more than 50 new transfers. Several of those newcomers are talented players who transferred down after not finding the right fit at bigger programs.
The quarterback battle is still unsettled, with Marcus Stokes, who transferred from West Florida after a huge Division II season, competing with Air Noland, a former four-star recruit who started his college career at Ohio State before spending last season at South Carolina. Huff won’t have much time to sort it out, either, because Memphis opens with road games at UNLV and Boise State in its first three contests.
New Mexico may be the most surprising name on the list, but Jason Eck earned that attention last season. In his first year as head coach, he guided the Lobos to a 9-4 record, their most wins and first winning season since 2016, while ending an eight-year bowl drought.
Eck arrived from Idaho after leading the Vandals to three straight FCS playoff appearances, and he brought several familiar pieces with him. Quarterback Jack Layne followed him from Idaho and started every game for New Mexico last season, while linebacker Jaxton Eck also came over and made a major impact.
Jaxton Eck, who was an FCS All-American at Idaho, won Mountain West Co-Defensive Player of the Year last season and finished 10th in the FBS in total tackles with 128. The Lobos stay in the Mountain West and are among a small group of teams, along with UNLV, North Dakota State, and Hawaii, that look like strong contenders for the conference title.
In Other News...
Where Maddux Madsen Lands In The Pac-12 QB Debate
The early Pac-12 quarterback conversation for 2026 already has a clear headliner, with The Athletic slotting Texas States Brad Jackson atop the league at No. 27 overall in a tiered ranking of 138 passers. Boise States Maddux Madsen is in the mix too, landing at No. 61 and in Tier 5, a placement that puts him in the middle of the pack as the conference prepares for another round of quarterback turnover and evaluation.
For Boise State, the ranking is a reminder that Madsens resume still carries both experience and questions. He enters the discussion as the most seasoned projected Pac-12 starter with 26 career starts, but the analysis also points to an injury-marred season and lingering concerns about accuracy and pocket presence. In a group that includes eight projected starters, the Broncos will be watching to see whether Madsen can turn that experience into a stronger standing when the debate gets settled on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Is Suddenly Hearing Big Things About Tyler Ethridge
Boise States summer media day turned into a quiet showcase for Tyler Ethridge, the senior offensive lineman who arrived from Colorado State Pueblo and has quickly become one of the more talked-about newcomers on the roster. Coaches and teammates kept coming back to the same themes: athleticism, versatility and the kind of presence that can change how an offensive line looks when the pads finally come on.
Offensive coordinator Nate Potter and head coach Spencer Danielson both made it clear Ethridge has already earned attention inside the building, and the praise went beyond simple camp optimism. There is growing confidence that he can be a real factor for the Broncos and has the tools to keep climbing, which makes his next step one of the more intriguing storylines on a line still taking shape. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States Loaded Backfield Leaves One Huge Question Before Camp
Boise States backfield is crowded in a way most coaches would welcome and most defenses would dread. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines are back after sharing the load last season, and the room got even deeper with the additions of Harry Stewart from Kansas and Juelz Goff from Pittsburgh, giving the Broncos a mix of proven production and fresh competition heading into camp.
The challenge now is less about talent than about sorting out roles. Boise State leaned on a running back by committee approach a year ago, with Riley leading the way in carries, and the staff has to decide whether that formula stays in place or whether one runner starts to pull away as the clear lead option while the rest carve out their own lanes. [Read more 🡒]