James Madison’s overtime loss at Appalachian State on Thursday night didn’t just end an unbeaten run. It cracked open the whole Group of Six race.
The Dukes’ 34-31 defeat in a Sun Belt showdown left college football with five unbeatens, and none of them now sits in the Group of Six. That shift matters with the CFP selection committee’s first rankings set to arrive Nov. 3, because the automatic berth reserved for the highest-ranked Group of Six team is suddenly a wide-open conversation again - and the idea of two Group of Six teams making the 12-team bracket has taken a hit.
At the same time, the Pac-12’s “flex week” in Week 13 has become a major piece of the playoff puzzle. With an eight-team round-robin giving way to a final weekend of “repeat” matchups that don’t count in the standings or for Pac-12 Championship Game qualification, the league now has a built-in chance to reshape its own playoff case. The setup is meant to let the conference adjust late, identify its best teams and improve its shot at a CFP berth.
Boise State sits in the best position of anyone chasing that opening.
The Broncos are 5-1, ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 and riding a five-game winning streak since their season-opening loss at Oregon. They handled the toughest test since then with a 38-31 win at Fresno State, and they go into Saturday’s game at Washington State as a two-touchdown favorite.
Boise State was the preseason favorite to represent the Group of Six at +750, and it drew two-thirds of the vote from the panel of experts. With a ranking already in place, the Broncos look like the cleanest path to the bid if they keep winning.
They also lead the Group of Six in strength of record at 25th, strength of schedule at 59th and game control at 20th.
New Mexico is the next team in the mix, even if the road is much bumpier.
The Lobos are 5-1 with their only loss coming in a 14-6 defeat at Oklahoma. Their biggest problem is the same one that can sink a Group of Six contender fast: the metrics.
New Mexico has the conference’s highest strength of record at 38th, but its strength of schedule sits at 108th. Saturday’s game against North Dakota State matters because the Lobos need more than a clean record; they need something that looks like a resume.
Jason Eck’s team is trying to keep pace in a race where perception and numbers carry real weight.
Oregon State has also moved into the picture, and the Beavers need the kind of finish that keeps stacking answers.
At 5-2, they’re the CBS Sports Group of Six pick in this week’s CFP projections. Their two losses came against nationally ranked Houston and Texas Tech from the Big 12, which leaves the door open for a strong second half.
If Oregon State runs the table in the Pac-12, reaches 10-2, and wins the league title game, it could put itself in the discussion for the highest-ranked Group of Six spot. Thursday night helped its case, since one of the needed dominos fell with JMU’s loss.
The Beavers were also the last of four Group of Six teams to receive votes in this week’s AP poll, just behind New Mexico and James Madison. They’ll be rooting for North Dakota State to knock off New Mexico this weekend, and they have a major date of their own with Boise State on Nov.
- Oregon State is led by Jesse Legree, who leads the FBS in receiving yards and touchdowns through seven games.
UTSA remains in the hunt as well.
The Roadrunners are 6-1, and their only loss came at Texas. They open this stretch with a visit to Tulane on Saturday, trying to extend a four-game run after Memphis beat ECU in overtime Thursday night.
UTSA and North Texas are the only teams without a loss in conference play through the first three games of the league slate, even though the early preseason assumption was that the Group of Six berth would come down to Boise State or the American champion. UTSA’s biggest remaining game is against North Texas on Nov.
North Texas would have been right in this discussion, too, if not for a damaging loss at Texas State on Sept. 19.
Finally, North Dakota State still has a route, but it’s narrower after the six-point loss at UNLV earlier this month. That defeat hurt the metrics, and the Bison may not get them back in time.
Their road game this weekend could shift things if they win, but for now they’re still on the outside looking in. To stay in the conversation next month, they need to win the Mountain West and hope for chaos at the top of the Pac-12.
In Other News...
Boise State Faces A Tough WR Decision Against Washington State
Boise State should have most of its wide receiver group available when it lines up with Washington State, a useful development for an offense trying to find the right mix entering a matchup that figures to ask plenty of its skill players. Rasean Jones and Cam Bates are both back after missing the previous game, and Darren Morris is also back on the availability report, giving the Broncos a much fuller picture at receiver than they had last week.
The only real uncertainty among that group centers on Ben Ford, who is listed as questionable after leaving the Fresno State game at halftime. On the other side of the injury report, senior left guard Carson Rasmussen is still out for a third straight game, leaving Boise State to continue juggling its front while hoping its passing options stay intact against the Cougars. [Read more 🡒]
Former Bronco Kirby Moore Is Bringing A New Problem To Boise State
Kirby Moore has always been part of the Boise State story, and now he is showing up on the other sideline with a different kind of challenge for the Broncos. The former Boise State wide receiver and current Washington State head coach talked recently about his connection to the program and the path that took him from the blue turf into a head coaching job, but the timing matters now because Washington State is getting ready to host Boise State in an upcoming game.
Moores offense is also arriving with some recent momentum after he took over the play-calling duties and made a notable quarterback move. Washington State went with a different signal-caller and produced its highest point total of the season in a loss to Oregon State, which at least suggests the Cougars may have found something useful as they turn to a familiar face with a new wrinkle for Boise State to sort out. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Faces A Dangerous Test In Its Biggest Defensive Weakness
Washington State is turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Owen Eshelman for his next start, and Boise State is preparing for a version of him that already looked dangerous in his first career outing against Oregon State. Eshelman completed 32 of 49 passes for 289 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, and he added another layer with 136 rushing yards and a touchdown, the kind of dual-threat performance that can test a defense in a hurry.
Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said he expects Eshelman to get better with more experience, which only adds to the challenge for a Broncos defense that has already had trouble this season against explosive plays. Danielson pointed back to the basics, stressing that Boise State needs cleaner tackling and stronger fundamentals rather than a wholesale scheme change, a reminder that this matchup could hinge as much on discipline as on game plan. [Read more 🡒]