Boise States Playoff Grip Suddenly Looks More Fragile Than Fans Realize

Georgia's dominant win over Florida reshapes the playoff picture as teams vie for coveted spots in the seemingly unpredictable college football landscape.

Georgia’s latest demolition of Florida didn’t just extend a streak. It gave the College Football Playoff race another jolt and forced a fresh look at how the bracket could shake out as November arrives.

The Bulldogs handled the Gators for the sixth straight time, and Florida’s third loss of the season knocks it out of the playoff conversation. That result also feeds directly into the SEC picture and gives the selection committee a new data point as it gathers for its first meeting of the week.

For now, Georgia still sits where it has for much of the season: as the most complete team in the country and the projected SEC champion. Nothing about Saturday changed that view.

The projected ACC champion is expected to run the table, which would include a road win at Notre Dame next week. Even so, the committee could still favor a one-loss SEC champion over an unbeaten ACC winner.

Ohio State has moved into the projection as the expected Big Ten champion after Indiana’s offensive issues continued, even with questions lingering around the Buckeyes following Julian Sayin’s injury.

Will Stein’s debut was a strong one, and the team he now coaches is projected to finish as the SEC championship runner-up. That could be enough to land a first-round bye.

Indiana remains the second-best team in the Big Ten, but Josh Hoover not being fully healthy could hurt the Hoosiers’ chances of defending their title.

Utah strengthened its case by putting up 42 first-half points at Cincinnati, shutting down any upset chatter and staying in position as the Big 12 favorite.

Idle this weekend, Lane Kiffin’s team still has a lot to prove. The next stretch will tell the story, with Alabama and Texas coming to town and a trip to Tennessee still ahead.

The projected Big 12 runner-up is ahead of BYU, which is expected to end up with two losses after its game against Utah.

UCLA remains very much alive to run the table, but the committee may not be sold on the Bruins’ schedule strength.

Alabama’s loss at LSU does not end its playoff hopes, especially with the rest of the schedule expected to be manageable.

Notre Dame’s path is less forgiving. Losses to BYU and possibly Miami could leave the Irish outside the top 12, given what remains on their schedule. If that happens, Ole Miss or Texas could slide into the spot if either team finishes strong.

Boise State still holds the Group of Six position for now, but the Broncos’ grip on the 12 spot could change quickly depending on what happens against Oregon State in the near future.

In Other News...

Boise State Heads Into Key Pac-12 Test With Two Big Offensive Losses

Boise States offense will have to adjust again this week, with the Broncos heading into their Pac-12 matchup against Texas State missing two key pieces up front and in the backfield. Sire Gaines was officially ruled out because of a leg injury, while Carson Rasmussen is also unavailable, leaving Boise State to shuffle its protection and run-game plans for a game that already carries plenty of weight.

Jason Steele is set to start at left guard in Rasmussens place, giving the Broncos a new look on the interior line as they try to keep the offense on schedule. There is at least some good news for Boise State, with wide receiver Ben Ford and tight end Austin Terry both available, but the absences of Gaines and Rasmussen still leave a noticeable gap in the lineup. [Read more 🡒]

Boise State's Favorite Status Suddenly Feels Less Comfortable Than Expected

Boise State heads into its matchup with Texas State carrying the kind of profile that usually brings confidence with it. The Broncos are riding a six-game winning streak and opened as a 12.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, a number that reflected both their recent form and the expectation that they would control the game on the ground. Even so, this is not the sort of opponent that lets a favorite get too comfortable, especially with both teams showing up near the top of the rushing charts.

Texas State brings a fast-moving offense and enough balance to make the Broncos pay attention on every series, with quarterback Brad Jackson and running back Torrance Burgess Jr. driving much of what the Bobcats do. Boise State coach Spencer Danielson has already pointed to the strengths on both sides of the ball that make this a tricky test, and the market has noticed too, with the spread tightening before kickoff. For a team that has spent the week looking like the safer play, this one suddenly has a little more edge than the opening number suggested. [Read more 🡒]

Boise State Just Sent A Strong Late-Season Message To The Pac-12

Boise State made a loud late-season statement with a 4-0 win over Texas State, a result that locked up a spot in the Pac-12 Championship and kept the Broncos firmly in the title picture. After a scoreless opening half, Boise State found its rhythm and controlled the match from there, turning a tight game into a convincing road-like finish with all four goals coming after the break.

The defensive side was just as important, with Texas State managing only two shots on goal in the second half and Ava de Leest picking up her 10th shutout of the season. Now the Broncos have one more regular-season test in front of them, and the stakes are simple: a win over Washington State would give Boise State a share of the Pac-12 regular season crown. [Read more 🡒]