Miami’s hold on the AP top spot is already feeling shaky, even with the Hurricanes sitting No. 1 right now.
The 2026 college football season has been churning out more turnover near the top than usual, with four different teams already spending time at No. 1. That matches the most since 2010, and it feeds into the bigger theme emerging so far: there’s more balance across the sport than fans are used to seeing.
With the calendar nearing the end of October, the College Football Playoff picture is coming into focus, and the current projection has Miami leading the charge but not necessarily locked into the top seed. The Hurricanes’ historic offense has them on pace to run the table, and they’re expected to beat Notre Dame in two weeks, but the selection committee may still favor the SEC champion if it decides that team has done more overall.
Georgia is still the projected SEC champion, with the Bulldogs viewed as the most complete team in the field. The source of that confidence is simple: the committee could dismiss the Auburn loss and lean harder on Georgia’s win over Alabama.
In the ACC, Miami remains the projected champion. In the Big Ten, Indiana is the pick to take the league, even if its offense is not what it was a year ago. The Hoosiers could have a path back to Indianapolis, especially with Ohio State suddenly dealing with a quarterback injury issue.
Ohio State still lands in the bracket as the Big Ten runner-up. Julian Sayin’s absence could drag down the Buckeyes’ offense, even with Jeremiah Smith and despite the problems in the running game, but there’s still enough talent there to stay in the mix for a first-round bye.
The Big 12 projection goes to Utah, where the combination of Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker has the Utes rolling while they remain undefeated.
Beyond the conference winners, the at-large field is packed with teams trying to stay afloat as the losses start to matter more.
UCLA is still unbeaten and, in this projection, should get through the Big Ten with no worse than one loss. The Bruins also look capable of beating USC, which would open the door for a conference-title push.
Kentucky has surged to first place in the SEC race after beating Vanderbilt and is now 7-1. But the Wildcats still have a brutal stretch ahead with Tennessee, Missouri and Florida still on the schedule, so nothing is secure yet.
Texas is back in control of its playoff path after beating Ole Miss. The Longhorns are leaning on a defensive front that ranks No. 1 in FBS in total efficiency, and they still have ranked matchups left against Missouri and LSU. Much of their fate may come down to whether they get more Good Arch than Bad.
Houston is the projected Big 12 runner-up. Even with one loss already, the Cougars would still belong in the bracket with another defeat, likely coming against Utah on Nov. 7 or in Arlington. If they win both of those games, they would be top-four material for certain.
Auburn stays in the at-large mix after its strong win over Auburn. The Tigers still have three ranked opponents left, and the Alabama game could end up serving as a playoff play-in.
Notre Dame is still sitting comfortably in the top five in the AP poll despite the loss to BYU. Even so, another stumble - especially against Miami - could threaten its standing in the top 12 by the end of the season.
The projected Group of Six spot still belongs to Boise State after James Madison’s loss reaffirmed the Broncos as the favorite from the non-Power leagues. But there’s another major test ahead against Oregon State, and that game could still reshape the race for the 12th spot.
In Other News...
Boise State Faces A Real Test Against A Dangerous Texas State Team
Boise State gets a Halloween night stage at Albertsons Stadium on Oct. 31, with Texas State coming in for an 8 p.m. Mountain kickoff in a game that looks more dangerous than the point spread suggests. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Broncos as 11.5-point favorites, but that number has not changed the way Spencer Danielson is talking about the matchup, especially with a Bobcats team that has enough firepower to make things uncomfortable if Boise State is not sharp early.
Danielson pointed directly to Texas States offense and its dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson as the biggest challenge, and that is the kind of profile that can stress a defense on any given night. With more Pac-12 games and betting lines in the mix around the schedule, this one stands out for Boise State because it is the sort of late-season test that can reveal a lot about how complete the Broncos really are. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States Strong Finish Changes The Feel Of The Pac-12 Race
A road win in Pullman has kept Boise State right in the thick of the Pac-12 race, and the way the Broncos handled Washington State made the result feel bigger than just another conference victory. With the standings still crowded at the top alongside Oregon State, Boise State has now paired strong recent results with the kind of balanced team performance that travels well, leaning on the run game and a defense that made life difficult for the Cougars.
That matters even more with the schedule tightening and other league contenders dealing with their own swings in form, because every Saturday now seems to reshape the picture a little more. Boise States latest performance did more than protect its place near the top - it also added another layer of pressure to the teams chasing it, with the next stretch likely to say plenty about whether this early advantage holds. [Read more 🡒]
Spencer Danielson Just Gave Boise State Fans What They Needed
Spencer Danielson has done enough in a short time to make Boise State fans plenty comfortable with the direction of the program. A 30-9 start as head coach, three Mountain West championships and a trip to the College Football Playoff in 2024 have already put him in rare company, and his rise has naturally started to attract attention from programs looking for a new leader.
So when Danielson was connected to the Baylor opening after Dave Aranda was fired, it was the kind of outside noise that could have sparked real concern in Boise. Instead, he made clear where his focus is, stressing his commitment to the Broncos, the community and the future of the program. For a fan base that has watched him deliver on the field, the message was exactly the kind of reassurance it wanted. [Read more 🡒]