Boise State heads into its bye week with plenty to like and a few problems that could decide how the second half plays out.
The Broncos are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in Pac-12 play after taking care of Utah State and Fresno State. They’ve also spent three straight weeks in The Associated Press Top 25, checking in at No. 23 this week. With the College Football Playoff spot reserved for a Group of Six team looming, Boise State is in a strong position, but the path still has some sharp edges.
What’s fueling the run so far? Start with Dylan Riley, who has turned himself into the nation’s leading rusher.
Junior running back Dylan Riley has piled up 835 rushing yards, along with 120 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns. He’s gone for at least 138 rushing yards in four games and has logged at least 17 carries in every outing.
Boise State expected Riley to have a big year after he moved into RB1 last season, even with junior Sire Gaines supposed to share the workload. But Gaines missed two games because of injury, and Riley has taken another step.
The result is a season that’s brought back memories of 2024 Ashton Jeanty for Bronco fans.
That balance has helped quarterback Maddux Madsen operate with real precision. In his third full season as the starter, the fifth-year quarterback is one of only seven passers nationally with at least 100 attempts and no interceptions.
His 110 completions trail only Miami’s Heisman Trophy hopeful Darian Mensah, who has 112. ESPN’s quarterback rating metric has Madsen fifth in the country, behind Mensah, Gunnar Stockton of Georgia, Keelon Russell of Alabama and CJ Carr of Notre Dame.
He has not lost a fumble, either, and his season line includes 1,296 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, 110 rushing yards and one rushing score.
Still, Boise State’s defense is carrying some obvious warning signs. Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander said last week, “I think we’re exceptional, but you’ve got to clean (explosive) plays up, and until you do, you’re not.”
That sums up the situation pretty well. The Broncos have been strong on the money downs, ranking eighth nationally in third-down defense at 27.4% and fourth in fourth-down defense at 8.3%.
But the pass defense has been a mess, ranking 126th in the nation while allowing 261.3 passing yards per game. A chunk of those yards has come on explosive plays, and the Broncos have also given up a number of defensive pass interference penalties that have handed opponents automatic 15-yard gains.
One reason for that may be the way Boise State is attacking quarterbacks. The Broncos bring pressure often, and while that can speed up an offense, it has also left their corners in a lot of tough one-on-one situations.
The tackling has become another issue. Boise State’s start against Oregon was sharp in that area, but the problem has shown back up.
Against Fresno State, junior cornerback Sherrod Smith missed a tackle that should have limited a play to 10 yards but instead turned into a 59-yard touchdown. Chinander said the defense has slipped from “controlled violence” to “recklessness,” and he pointed to eye control as the fix.
He also emphasized “snipering” onto a specific spot instead of staring at the whole play.
“See a little, see a lot. See a lot, see nothing,” Chinander said. “When I know exactly where my eyes are going to be, my key’s telling me what to do, then my body can operate.”
The playoff picture remains favorable, but not settled. The 12-team CFP guarantees a spot for one Group of Six team, and Boise State is the only AP Top 25 team among that group right now, which puts the Broncos in the lead position.
ESPN’s analytics give Boise State a 53.5% chance of winning out and landing that berth. James Madison is the only other team ESPN gives a real shot, though the Dukes’ 6-0 record comes with a weaker strength of schedule that should keep them behind Boise State if the Broncos keep winning.
There is at least one team with enough firepower to complicate things. Oregon State is 4-2 after close losses to Houston and Texas Tech and has since rolled past Colorado State 56-26 and San Diego State 66-14.
The Beavers lead the nation in passing yards with sophomore Braden Atkinson at 2,257, and freshman Jesse Legree leads the country in receiving yards with 932. Given Boise State’s issues against the pass, that’s a matchup the Broncos will have to keep in mind down the stretch.
In Other News...
Former Boise State DB At Center Of Eligibility Fight Fans Should Watch
Former Boise State cornerback Jeremiah Earby is back in the middle of a bigger NCAA eligibility fight that could have ripple effects beyond football. Earby, who entered the transfer portal, was one of two players granted temporary restraining orders by the Washtenaw County Circuit Court in Michigan, a ruling that allowed him and former Miami tight end Alex Bauman to keep their college football eligibility while their cases play out.
For Boise State fans, the story is worth watching because the NCAAs pushback on eligibility lawsuits involving class of 2022 athletes has already produced mixed results in court. That uncertainty has reached other Broncos as well, including basketball player Lamar Washington, who remains ineligible, making Earbys case part of a much broader test of how far players can go to challenge the NCAAs rules. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Just Lost A Key Defensive Piece Fans Wont Ignore
Michigan has added two more portal names to its roster in former Miami tight end Alex Bauman and former Boise State cornerback Jeremiah Earby, giving the Wolverines some extra depth as they gear up for Penn State. Both players have enrolled at Michigan after receiving temporary restraining orders that opened the door to another season of eligibility, a wrinkle that has become an increasingly familiar part of roster building in the transfer era.
For Boise State, Earbys move lands with some extra bite because it strips away a defensive back who had already earned a reputation in the Mountain West before heading elsewhere. Michigan is happy to supplement its depth chart, but for the Broncos it is another reminder of how quickly proven pieces can disappear once the portal and eligibility questions enter the picture. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State's Playoff Push Just Got A Lot More Real
Boise States early-season surge has put the Broncos in a spot they rarely get to enjoy this time of year: being talked about as a real playoff contender, not just a team with an outside shot. At 5-1 and sitting atop the Pac-12 at 2-0, the Broncos have positioned themselves as the Group of Six team everyone else is chasing, and the numbers are starting to reflect that momentum.
DraftKings Sportsbook now has Boise State as the favorite among Group of Six programs to reach the College Football Playoff, and the wider projection world is treating the Broncos like a legitimate part of the conversation. National bowl forecasts are beginning to map out a path that would put Boise State in the playoff field, with the race still leaving plenty to settle before anything becomes official. [Read more 🡒]