Boise State’s playoff path got a lot cleaner after Saturday’s 38-20 win over Memphis, even if the Broncos’ standing in the AP Poll and Coaches Poll slipped a bit.
The real headline is the market. In the latest FanDuel odds, Boise State is now +230 to make the College Football Playoff, putting the Broncos in position to represent the Group of Six for a second time in three seasons.
Only 13 teams are listed ahead of Boise State in the CFP race: Notre Dame (-800), Miami (-600), Indiana (-380), Georgia (-380), Texas (-370), Ohio State (-290), Texas Tech (-166), LSU (-146), Alabama (+144), Ole Miss (+150), Oregon (+160), Texas A&M (+164) and USC (+170).
That’s a notable move from where Boise State stood before the season. The Broncos opened at +450 to reach the playoff before their Week 1 game against Oregon, then climbed to +350 after taking a competitive seven-point loss to the Ducks.
The setup is straightforward: the highest-ranked Group of Six champion gets an automatic spot in the 12-team playoff.
At the moment, Boise State’s biggest threat for that berth appears to be North Dakota State. The Mountain West newcomer is 3-0 overall and 1-0 in league play after surviving a 38-32 win at Air Force on Saturday. The Bison still have road games ahead at New Mexico and UNLV, but they could be favored the rest of the way.
Two American teams are next in the odds at +1000: Memphis and UTSA. Memphis owns a road win at UNLV, but the Tigers were held scoreless in the second half against Boise State.
UTSA beat Texas State over the weekend and now heads to No. 1 Texas before hosting Colorado State on Sept.
The rest of the Group of Six picture includes James Madison at +1150, then New Mexico and South Florida at +1300, Navy and San Diego State at +1500, Army at +2200 and Western Michigan at +3800.
Boise State’s own schedule keeps rolling with FCS South Dakota coming to town at 8 p.m. on Saturday. The Coyotes were No. 11 in last week’s FCS Coaches Poll.
After that, the Broncos travel to Western Michigan on Sept. 26.
There was one more wrinkle over the weekend: Oregon’s loss at Oklahoma State, 39-31, dinged the Broncos’ quality-loss argument. The Ducks had entered that game with a 21-game winning streak against FBS opponents, but they still remain in the mix for a third straight CFP trip.
In Other News...
Boise States AP Snub Says A Lot About How Voters See Them
Boise State did what it was supposed to do against Memphis, winning 38-20 and giving itself a clean late-season resume point. Even so, the Broncos were left on the outside of the Associated Press Top 25 this week, a reminder that at this stage of the season style points only go so far when voters are sorting through a crowded middle tier.
The Broncos remain the highest-ranked Group of Six team just outside the poll and also narrowly missed the USA Today Coaches Poll, but the path back in is still narrow. Other results around the country, along with how Memphis is being viewed, continue to shape Boise States standing, which leaves the Broncos needing both more wins and a little help if they want the voters to finally move them up. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States Latest Poll Snub Says Plenty About This Team
Boise State did enough in its Week 2 win over Memphis to look like a team deserving more attention, yet the Broncos were still stuck on the outside of the Coaches Poll after a 38-20 home victory. The performance itself made the case: Boise State controlled the game on the ground and showed the kind of physical edge that usually gets noticed this time of year.
The Broncos piled up 357 rushing yards, with junior tailback Dylan Riley breaking out for a career-high 206. Memphis coach Charles Huff even praised Boise State after the game, which only sharpens the question around how this team is being viewed nationally and how long it can keep making that kind of statement without breaking into the rankings. [Read more 🡒]
Spencer Danielson Sends Clear Message As Boise State Loses Composure
Spencer Danielson made his frustration clear in the first half of Boise States non-conference game against Memphis, and it came after a stretch in which the Broncos felt they were fighting more than one opponent. Multiple pass interference calls went against Boise State as Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes pushed the ball downfield, while tight end Hunter Tipton added a touchdown for the Tigers. Even with the officiating drawing Danielsons attention, Boise States offense answered with two quick touchdowns before halftime and kept the game tight.
Still, the Broncos could not quite steady themselves before the break. Memphis slipped in a last-second field goal to take a 20-17 lead into halftime, leaving Boise State with both a narrow deficit and a growing sense of irritation over how the first half had been called. For Danielson, the larger concern was not just the score, but the way his teams composure seemed to fray as the game moved toward halftime. [Read more 🡒]