Boise State went into its bye week with plenty of national momentum, and the betting markets are backing that up.
At 5-1 and 2-0 in the Pac-12, the No. 23 Broncos have won five straight since opening the season with a seven-point road loss at Oregon. That run has put them in position as the clear Group of Six favorite to reach the College Football Playoff, and DraftKings Sportsbook still has Boise State at +140 to make it in for the second time since 2024.
That number held steady from last week, even after Boise State pulled out a 38-31 road win over rival Fresno State to stay on track. In the national picture, the Broncos have the 10th-best odds to reach the CFP, trailing only Notre Dame (-4000), Georgia (-3000), Miami (-1800), Indiana (-800), Ohio State (-750), Alabama (-700), Texas (-450), Utah (+105) and Texas Tech (+120).
The rest of the Group of Six race is crowded, but Boise State remains the team everyone else is chasing. James Madison leads the Sun Belt at +400, New Mexico is the Mountain West favorite at +425, and UTSA (+1100) and Memphis (+1600) sit atop the American. Boise State already handled Memphis in Week 2, winning 38-20 at home.
There was movement elsewhere in the pecking order, too. North Dakota State slid from +425 to +1200 after a 13-7 loss to UNLV, and the Bison still have a trip to New Mexico coming next week.
As for the Pac-12 race, Oregon State is sitting at +3000 to make the CFP. The Beavers, who are 4-2 and 2-0, are scheduled to visit Boise State on Nov. 14.
Bowl projections are lining up with the playoff picture as well, with the latest national predictions sending Boise State to the College Football Playoff and placing Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
For now, the simple read is this: Boise State’s playoff case has serious national support, and the numbers say the Broncos are very much alive.
In Other News...
Former Boise State DB At Center Of Eligibility Fight Fans Should Watch
Former Boise State cornerback Jeremiah Earby is back in the middle of a bigger NCAA eligibility fight that could have ripple effects beyond football. Earby, who entered the transfer portal, was one of two players granted temporary restraining orders by the Washtenaw County Circuit Court in Michigan, a ruling that allowed him and former Miami tight end Alex Bauman to keep their college football eligibility while their cases play out.
For Boise State fans, the story is worth watching because the NCAAs pushback on eligibility lawsuits involving class of 2022 athletes has already produced mixed results in court. That uncertainty has reached other Broncos as well, including basketball player Lamar Washington, who remains ineligible, making Earbys case part of a much broader test of how far players can go to challenge the NCAAs rules. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Just Lost A Key Defensive Piece Fans Wont Ignore
Michigan has added two more portal names to its roster in former Miami tight end Alex Bauman and former Boise State cornerback Jeremiah Earby, giving the Wolverines some extra depth as they gear up for Penn State. Both players have enrolled at Michigan after receiving temporary restraining orders that opened the door to another season of eligibility, a wrinkle that has become an increasingly familiar part of roster building in the transfer era.
For Boise State, Earbys move lands with some extra bite because it strips away a defensive back who had already earned a reputation in the Mountain West before heading elsewhere. Michigan is happy to supplement its depth chart, but for the Broncos it is another reminder of how quickly proven pieces can disappear once the portal and eligibility questions enter the picture. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States CFP Push Comes With One Growing Problem
Boise State has built a compelling early case in its College Football Playoff chase, with a 5-1 start, a 2-0 mark in conference play and a No. 23 spot in the Associated Press Top 25. The Broncos have leaned on a balanced identity that starts with junior running back Dylan Riley and has been stabilized by quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has protected the ball well while keeping the offense on schedule.
The concern, though, is becoming harder to ignore as the stakes rise. Boise States defense has been vulnerable in pass coverage and has also struggled with tackling, leaving it exposed to explosive plays at a time when every slip can matter in the race for a playoff berth. If the Broncos are going to keep turning this fast start into something bigger, they will have to clean up that side of the ball before it costs them in a game that matters most. [Read more 🡒]