The betting market has trimmed Boise State’s edge, but the Broncos still enter Saturday night’s matchup with Texas State as the clear favorite at Albertsons Stadium.
DraftKings Sportsbook opened No. 20 Boise State as a 12.5-point home favorite, then watched the number fall quickly to 11.5 before settling at 10 in the lead-up to the 8 p.m.
Mountain time kickoff. Boise State is also -410 on the moneyline, while Texas State sits at +320 to pull the upset outright.
The over/under has moved down from 65.5 to 62.5.
Boise State brings a six-game winning streak into the game, but Texas State’s offense has been one of the most dangerous in the country. The Bobcats rank fifth nationally and second in the Pac-12 behind Oregon State in total offense at 517.7 yards per game. They also check in at No. 18 in FBS in scoring offense, averaging 37.1 points per game.
That attack runs through sophomore dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson and fifth-year senior running back Torrance Burgess Jr., two players Boise State coach Spencer Danielson singled out during the week.
“They have one of the best tailbacks in the entire country that is lightning in a bottle,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said on Thursday. “Their quarterback is big-time, elite athlete, can make all the throws.
O Line, physical. Tight ends are playing at a high level.
We’ve got our hands full defensively.”
The challenge goes both ways. Texas State has had issues on defense, ranking sixth among Pac-12 teams in scoring defense at 30 points allowed per game and sixth in total defense at 404.4 yards allowed per game. Still, Danielson pointed to a front that can cause problems.
“They do a good job mixing up their fronts in regards to some odd spacing, some four-down spacing,” Danielson said. “They get a lot of pressure out of it. They give you a lot-especially on first and second down-and it’s tough.”
The ground game figures to be central. Boise State junior tailback Dylan Riley entered Saturday as the nation’s second-leading rusher with 140 carries for 963 yards and nine total touchdowns. Burgess Jr. isn’t far behind with 118 carries for 889 yards and five touchdowns.
As a team, Texas State and Boise State are the top two rushing offenses in the Pac-12, with the Bobcats averaging 272 yards per game and the Broncos at 237.9.
Against the spread, Boise State is 4-3 and Texas State is 3-4. The game is set for Saturday, Oct. 31.
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Boise States Playoff Grip Suddenly Looks More Fragile Than Fans Realize
Georgias win over Florida did more than shake up the SEC race. It also sent another ripple through the College Football Playoff picture, where Boise State is trying to protect its place in a field that still feels very much in motion. With conference title races and seed projections shifting week by week, the Broncos remain in the mix, but the path they thought they had is not as secure as it looked a short time ago.
For Boise State, the bigger issue is not just where the bracket stands today, but how quickly it can change once the next round of games hits. The projections still have the Broncos in position to matter, yet the margin for error is thin and the teams chasing them are not going away. Every result from here on out carries extra weight, and Boise States standing could look different again before long. [Read more 🡒]