Week 1 always brings a weird betting board, and the top-25 slate is no exception. Between transfer portal chaos and the kind of lopsided matchups that can turn a cover into a sweat in the fourth quarter, getting the spread right takes more than just identifying the better team.
That’s the angle here: pick the spread winner in every Top 25 game, and trust that the numbers and roster turnover tell the story.
One of the biggest fade spots comes with North Texas. The Mean Green posted some strong advanced metrics last season, but that success also came with a price in the current college football landscape.
Head coach Eric Morris is gone to a power school, and most of the roster has transferred out. With a new coach and a totally rebuilt group, it’s hard to see how they stay within range of a national championship contender.
Indiana has also lost some pieces from last season, but Curt Cignetti has proven he can build a roster, and there’s real optimism around new quarterback Josh Hoover.
Ball State doesn’t look like a team built to trouble Ohio State. Last season, the Cardinals were one of the worst statistical teams in the country, finishing 135th in EPA per play and 136th in offensive success rate. They only replaced three starting spots through the transfer portal, so the expectation is that there won’t be much improvement in 2026.
Boise State, on the other hand, has the kind of defense that can make a spread play work. The Broncos ranked 10th nationally in defensive success rate and are bringing back a lot of production from last year. That points to a low-scoring game, which helps their case to cover.
Texas State also shows up as a live underdog. The Bobcats had an offense that flew under the radar last season, ranking 35th in adjusted EPA and 30th in offensive success rate. And with Arch Manning getting off to a slow start with Texas in 2025, there’s a path for Texas State to stay inside the number if that pattern repeats in 2026.
Clemson is the other team drawing skepticism. Dabo Swinney’s reluctance to fully embrace the transfer portal has left the program behind, especially when compared with the approach Curt Cignetti used at Indiana. The result, in this view, is a team that can’t be trusted against elite competition.
Until Clemson changes course, the hesitation remains.
In Other News...
Boise State Faces An Early Test That Will Say A Lot
Boise States season starts with no easing in, no warm-up tuneup, and no room to settle in at Autzen Stadium. The Broncos will open on the road against No. 2 Oregon, with a 1:30 p.m. kickoff and the game airing live on CBS2, which makes the matchup feel like more than just a September opener. It is an early measuring stick for a team that knows exactly how much attention comes with walking into one of college footballs toughest environments.
Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander made it clear the challenge begins with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, while CBS analyst Charles Davis pointed to the different problems both sides have to solve and said Boise State is carrying confidence into the game. On the other side, offensive coordinator Nate Potter is giving Maddux Madsen the freedom to use his mobility, a wrinkle that could help the Broncos keep things from getting static if the offense needs to respond on the fly. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Must Show Oregon Last Years Special Teams Disaster Is Fixed
Boise State is heading back to Autzen Stadium with last years narrow loss to Oregon still serving as a reminder of how quickly special teams can swing a high-level game. Spencer Danielson said the Broncos took lessons from that defeat, and much of the focus this week has centered on making sure the kicking game does not hand the Ducks extra chances. That means a familiar cast should be in place, with senior punter Oscar Doyle, kickoff specialist Colton Boomer and field goal kicker Canaan Moore handling the duties.
Stacy Collins has made the return game a central point of emphasis, knowing Oregon can change a game with field position and momentum if given space. Boise States staff wants cleaner operation, fewer risky moments and a more controlled approach on kickoffs as the Broncos try to avoid the kind of special teams breakdowns that can turn a close road game into a chase. The challenge is not just executing well, but doing it under the pressure that comes with facing Oregon again in the same building. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State's Oregon Opener Comes With A Family Rivalry Twist
Boise States trip to Oregon to open the 2026 season already had the feel of a heavyweight early test, but the matchup comes with a personal layer, too. The Ducks are coached by Dan Lanning and feature defensive line coach Tony Tuioti, whose son Teitum is set for his senior season and is coming off a strong 2025 campaign that has him on the radar as a potential NFL draft pick.
For Boise State, the game also puts the Broncos in the middle of a family storyline that stretches beyond the usual conference and nonconference intrigue. It adds a little extra juice to a season opener that will draw plenty of attention anyway, with Oregon expecting Teitum to remain a key piece on defense and Boise State looking to make its own statement in a tough road environment. [Read more 🡒]