Boise State is back in a familiar spot: leading the pack.
ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index for 2026 has the Broncos ranked No. 50 overall, tops among Group of Six programs and ahead of every other team in the rebuilt Pac-12. Tulane checks in next at No. 56 after reaching the 2025 College Football Playoff and winning the American Conference, while Mountain West preseason favorite UNLV is right behind at No. 58.
The ranking fits the bigger picture around Spencer Danielson’s program. Boise State has won three straight Mountain West titles and reached the CFP in 2024, and now the Broncos are expected to push for a second playoff trip in three seasons after officially moving to the Pac-12 on July 1.
ESPN’s model gives Boise State a 4.0 overall rating and projects 7.8 wins for the season. The Broncos have 11 finalized games on the 2026 schedule, plus one flex opponent still to be determined for the regular-season finale.
The numbers also paint a clear picture of Boise State’s conference outlook. FPI says the Broncos have a 36.4 percent chance to win the Pac-12 and an 11 percent chance to make the CFP.
On the betting board, Boise State opened as a +154 favorite to win its fourth straight conference championship and is now a +170 favorite. San Diego State is next at +370, followed by Texas State (+550), Fresno State (+650), Washington State (+800), Utah State (+1100), Oregon State (+3000) and Colorado State (+4000). Fresno State has drawn early money after opening at +800.
Boise State is also tied with Tennessee for the 22nd-best odds to reach the CFP at +450. Among Group of Six teams, Army, Memphis and UTSA are next at +1000.
The Broncos will open their home schedule against Memphis on Saturday, Sept. 12 at newly renovated Albertsons Stadium.
In Other News...
Boise State Still Has One Troubling Question In The Passing Game
Boise States passing game has spent the offseason in a state of transition, and the receiver room is the clearest reason why. The Broncos are trying to replace a wave of departures, adjust to coaching turnover and sort through a group that includes returning names like Ben Ford and Matt Wagner along with younger options such as Rasean Jones and Cameron Bates.
What makes the situation tricky is that there still is not an obvious marquee target who has separated himself as the answer for 2026. Wagner has pushed himself into the conversation after a strong spring, Jones brings the kind of upside that can change a room quickly, and Bates has already shown he can build on a productive season, but Boise State is still waiting for one receiver to emerge as the clear lead option. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Is Already Earning Serious Playoff Respect Again
Boise State is heading into the 2026 season with the kind of preseason buzz that usually belongs to a Power Four program, not a Group of 6 team. With the Broncos now part of the revitalized Pac-12, sportsbooks and multiple preseason polls are lining them up as the top Group of 6 contender, and that matters more than simple bragging rights. Under the current College Football Playoff setup, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team can claim a postseason berth, so every early ranking is carrying a little more weight than usual.
The Broncos are showing up near the top of a wide range of projections, from the mid-20s all the way down into the 50s, but the common thread is hard to miss: Boise State keeps coming out ahead of the rest of its tier. Josh Pate has them in his top 25, CBS Sports and Phil Steele both slot them as the highest Group of 6 program, and ESPN FPI still gives them a respectable profile. The question now is less about whether Boise State belongs in the conversation and more about whether it can turn that preseason respect into the kind of season that keeps the CFP path open. [Read more 🡒]