Boise State enters the season with a familiar kind of pressure: not just to win, but to live up to the number attached to it.
That’s the real challenge for Spencer Danielson heading into year three. Coaching a major program means juggling a lot of moving parts - boosters, legislators, recruiting, culture, scheme, all of it - but expectation management might be the most underrated job on the list.
Danielson has already lived both ends of that spectrum. In 2024, the Broncos were given just a 12% shot of going 11-1 or better by SP+, then ripped through the year at 12-1 and reached the CFP Quarterfinals behind Ashton Jeanty’s huge season.
Last year was the flip side: Boise State opened ranked 25th in the AP Poll, was viewed as a playoff favorite, and was expected to cruise to a Mountain West title. Instead, the Broncos finished 9-5, slipped into the Mountain West championship picture through a complicated tiebreaking path, and fell well short of those preseason expectations.
So what should the bar be now?
If you lean on the numbers, the picture is pretty clear. Two of college football’s most useful preseason tools, SP+ and ESPN’s FPI, both put Boise State at the top of the PAC-12.
San Diego State is second in both models, but the gap looks different depending on which one you trust. FPI has Boise State 2.6 points better than the Aztecs and gives the Broncos a 36% chance to win the PAC-12.
SP+ is much more bullish, rating Boise State 8.1 points better and making the Broncos the biggest conference favorite in the FBS.
The same pattern shows up when you zoom out to the group of six. Boise State is the clear headliner there too.
No other group of six program starts higher in either FPI or SP+. UNLV is second in SP+, sitting 4.0 points behind Boise State, while Tulane is next in FPI, 1.7 points back.
FPI also gives the Broncos the best shot among group of six teams to make the CFP, at 11%.
Where the two models separate most sharply is Boise State’s standing against power four programs. FPI slots the Broncos 50th overall, while SP+ has them 39th.
That’s about a 3-point-per-game difference in how the systems view them. In plain terms, FPI sees Boise State more like a bottom-half power four team, while SP+ puts them closer to the middle of the pack.
Even so, neither model is treating the Broncos like a team ready to seriously threaten a CFP opponent. SP+ projects Boise State as a 16.9-point underdog to an average CFP team, and FPI has that number at 19.0 points.
Of course, preseason projections only tell part of the story. They’re useful as a baseline, but they miss plenty.
Boise State has already shown that in both directions over the last two seasons. The Broncos beat their preseason SP+ expectation by 2.2 points in 2024, then fell 6.9 points short in 2025, with Maddux Madsen’s injuries playing a major role.
That 6.9-point miss was right around the national average for preseason error. If Boise State were to beat its preseason SP+ number by that same margin this year, the Broncos would end up 17th in the preseason SP+ and would look like a CFP lock, with a real chance to win a game once they got there. If they repeat last season’s shortfall, they’d land at 68th, still the best team in the PAC-12 and second among group of six programs, but probably staring at another 7- to 9-win type of year.
That’s what makes the question so important. Boise State probably has to beat expectations to win another conference title.
It definitely has to do it to reach the CFP. And if the Broncos want to win a playoff game this time, they’ll need to clear that bar too.
In Other News...
Boise States Pac-12 Defense Will Lean Heavily On Boen Phelps
Boen Phelps has spent his Boise State career turning opportunity into a role, and now the program is treating him like much more than a former walk-on finding his way on defense. The junior linebacker made the move from safety to linebacker, earned a scholarship ahead of the 2025 season and became a steady presence last fall, starting nine games and finishing with 66 tackles while picking up Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Week honors after a standout showing against Appalachian State.
The Broncos have only added to the sense that Phelps is a central piece of what comes next, even letting him switch to the kind of jersey number usually reserved for players expected to carry real weight. For a defense preparing to enter a new league, that matters, because Boise State is clearly betting that Phelps can anchor the middle and keep building on a rise that started as a walk-on and has only gained momentum since. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Has A Major Secondary Question Heading Into Camp
Boise States secondary is heading into camp with a real reset on its hands after losing all three Week 1 starters from last season, leaving both safety spots and the nickel position open for 2026. The Broncos are trying to replace one of the most talented safety duos theyve had in years while also cleaning up a unit that had trouble finishing plays, with tackling a clear point of emphasis after last fall.
Derek Ganter Jr., the Eastern Washington transfer, looks like the most familiar face in the mix at safety, but Kyle Hall and Travis Anderson are also in the hunt as the staff sorts out the depth chart. At nickel, Roman Tillmon appears to have the inside track, and Boise State will need that group to settle quickly if it wants better production across the back end and a smoother transition from the departures of Ty Benefield, Zion Washington and Davon Banks. [Read more 🡒]