Boise State keeps showing up near the top of the Group of 6 conversation in the early preseason chatter, even if the Broncos aren’t cracking every national top 25 just yet.
That matters because the College Football Playoff’s latest qualification setup gives the highest-ranked Group of 6 team at the end of the regular season a spot in the bracket, whether that team wins its conference or not. With the Power 4 champions getting automatic bids and the rest of the field going to the highest-ranked at-large teams, the Group of 6 path almost certainly leads to one place.
Boise State enters 2026 with a fresh start and a new landscape around it. The Broncos open the season on the road at Oregon on Sept. 5, and they’ll do it as part of the revived Pac-12, which now includes four other former Mountain West teams, Texas State from the Sun Belt, and holdovers Washington State and Oregon State.
That new Pac-12 appears to be the strongest conference in the Group of 6 mix, and Boise State is being treated like the favorite to claim the CFP spot. Sportsbooks have already leaned that way, even though the Broncos missed the playoff last year and finished with five losses. Boise State was the Group of 5 team in the inaugural CFP in 2024.
The national rankings have mostly backed up that idea. Boise State keeps landing as the highest-rated G6 program in several preseason lists, though the exact spot varies quite a bit.
CBS Sports has the Broncos at No. 33, well outside the top 25 but still ahead of the rest of the Group of 6 pack. UNLV checks in next at No.
- The Rebels have finished second to Boise State in the Mountain West the past three seasons and could finally have a clearer path to the playoff without the Broncos blocking the way.
San Diego State is the closest Pac-12 team to Boise State in that ranking at No. 69.
Josh Pate’s College Football Show was even more bullish on the Broncos. In Pate’s poll, Boise State came in at No. 25, making it the only Group of 6 team to crack his list.
Phil Steele’s preseason view is more conservative. He slots Boise State at No. 47, though that still puts the Broncos ahead of every other G6 team in his rankings.
UTSA is next for the American Conference at No. 50, and Pac-12 newcomer Fresno State sits at No. 54.
ESPN’s FPI also keeps Boise State in the upper half of the national picture, though it’s important to note that FPI is not a straight team ranking. It measures how many points a team would be favored by against an average opponent on a neutral field, while factoring in expected points added per game, recruiting, and coaching changes.
Boise State comes in at No. 50 with an FPI of 4, which would translate to a four-point edge over an average team on a neutral field. Tulane is the next-closest G6 team at No. 56 with an FPI of 2.3, followed by UNLV at No. 58 with an FPI of 1.8.
ESPN also put out a preseason Top 25, but it largely tracked with the network’s FPI numbers.
In Other News...
Boise State Still Has One Troubling Question In The Passing Game
The biggest question hanging over Boise States passing game is not whether the Broncos have options at receiver, but which one will emerge as the clear focal point in 2026. With so much turnover in the room, the picture is still unsettled after a spring that featured returning names like Ben Ford and Matt Wagner, along with a growing buzz around freshman Rasean Jones and Cameron Bates.
That uncertainty matters because the Broncos lost a lot of production and leadership from a receiver group that has already been reshaped by graduations, transfers and coaching changes. Wagner looks like one of the most intriguing candidates after a strong spring, Bates has already shown he can make a jump, and Jones brings the kind of upside that can change the conversation quickly, but Boise State still has to sort out who will actually step into the WR1 role when the season arrives. [Read more 🡒]