No. 23 Boise State has edged out Oregon State in the early race for the Pac-12 crown, even if the gap is still narrow.
The Broncos sit atop the league in the betting market at -180 to win the conference, with the Beavers next at +210 in the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds. Fresno State is a distant third at +1200, followed by Texas State (+1800), Utah State (+4000), San Diego State (+7400), Colorado State (+10000) and Washington State (+20000).
On the field, though, Oregon State can point to the stronger statistical profile. The Beavers are the Pac-12’s No. 1 team in scoring offense at 41.8 points per game and total defense at 326.3 yards allowed, and they rank second in total offense at 522.3 yards and scoring defense at 22.0 points allowed. Boise State checks in third in scoring offense at 35.0, scoring defense at 22.3 and total offense at 450.5, and fourth in total defense at 368.2.
Both teams have separated themselves from the rest of the league through six weeks. Boise State is 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play, while Oregon State is 4-2 and also 2-0.
Their schedules have been close enough to keep the comparison fair, with the Broncos at No. 51 in FPI strength of schedule and the Beavers at No. 57.
Boise State will get Oregon State at home on Nov. 14, a matchup that could decide the race. Before that, the Broncos are off this week and then head to Washington State on Oct. 24.
That trip comes after Washington State visits Corvallis on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m.
Mountain time at Reser Stadium, and Oregon State is favored by 18.5 points over the Cougars. Washington State will start Owen Eshelman at quarterback ahead of Caden Pinnick, and Eshelman, a redshirt freshman, has not attempted a college pass.
The Beavers have been a machine against the spread, one of just four FBS teams to post a perfect mark in that category this season. They’ve covered all four games by an average of 19.3 points, matching New Mexico for the best figure in the country.
Boise State, meanwhile, continues to carry the weight of its recent success. The Broncos finished a 15-year run in the Mountain West with three straight championships, reached the College Football Playoff in 2024, and are favored to be the Group of Six representative in this year’s CFP.
Saturday’s other notable conference game sends Fresno State to San Diego State. The Bulldogs are 4-2 overall and 1-1 in league play, while the Aztecs are 2-4 and also 1-1. Fresno State is a 7.5-point road favorite, and San Diego State is coming off a 52-point loss to Oregon State.
On Thursday night, Texas State hosts Colorado State as a 14-point favorite. Both teams enter at 2-3 overall and 0-1 in conference play.
In Other News...
Boise States Biggest Defensive Concern Could Finally Get Exposed After The Bye
Boise States defense has spent the season looking better in the broad numbers than it sometimes feels in real time. The Broncos have held up well in overall Pac-12 statistical rankings, and their ball-control offense has done plenty of heavy lifting by keeping the defense on the sideline and the game on Boise States terms. That formula has helped cover for a unit that has otherwise shown a clear weakness when opponents do break free.
The concern now is whether the bye only delays the reckoning. Colorado State, Oregon State and Texas State are all waiting on the other side, and those are the kinds of matchups that can stress a defense in ways a slower pace usually masks. Oregon State stands out as the most daunting of the bunch, with an offense that can force the Broncos out of their comfort zone and make those hidden cracks much harder to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Has A New Milk Can Controversy Fans Will Hate
Boise States rivalry keeps finding new ways to get under fans skin, and this one is a doozy. After Fresno States 2023 win, the Bulldogs had a new Milk Can made, replacing the original trophy that had tracked the history of football victories between the two schools for years. The old version, complete with all of the previous plaques, stayed in Fresno, while the updated one is the trophy Boise State now gets back.
What makes the switch sting for Broncos fans is simple: the new Milk Can does not tell the full story anymore. Boise State and Fresno State have both confirmed the change, and Boise State is aware that some of the older plaques are missing from the version in circulation now. For a rivalry that already carries plenty of pride, even the trophy itself has become part of the argument. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Has Another Running Back Fans Need To Start Talking About
Dylan Riley has gone from a familiar name in Boise States backfield to one of the biggest reasons the Broncos have surged into a five-game winning streak. The junior running back has steadily carved out a larger role since arriving at Boise State, and his production has matched the expanded workload as he keeps powering an offense that has leaned on him more and more this fall.
What makes Rileys rise stand out is the path he took to get here. He spent time behind Ashton Jeanty, last years national rushing leader, and now he has emerged as the next homegrown runner drawing attention around the program. Teammates and coaches have praised both his play and his work ethic, and the bigger question now is how far this breakout can carry Boise State as the season keeps unfolding. [Read more 🡒]