Boise State’s stumble against FCS South Dakota last weekend rattled plenty of voters, but it didn’t move the Broncos’ position in the College Football Playoff market.
As of Wednesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook still has Boise State at +230 to make the CFP, the same number it carried a week ago. The Broncos opened at +450 before their Week 1 trip to Oregon, then moved to +350 after that 34-27 road loss.
Even after the shaky performance, Boise State remains the clear Group of Six team to beat in the race for the 12-team field. The Broncos sit 16th nationally in DraftKings’ CFP odds, behind Notre Dame (-1000), Miami (-700), Texas (-400), Georgia (-400), Indiana (-380), Ohio State (-290), Texas Tech (-140), Ole Miss (-130), LSU (+110), Alabama (+136), USC (+190), Penn State (+190), Oregon (+190), Tennessee (+205) and Florida (+230).
The path to staying on top of the Group of Six pecking order now runs through Kalamazoo. Boise State, which is 2-1 overall and 0-0 in Pac-12 play, visits Western Michigan this weekend.
Kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. Mountain time.
The Broncos need a road win to hold their spot at the top of the Group of Six CFP odds race.
Western Michigan, the reigning MAC champion, opened with a controversial loss to Michigan before bouncing back with two straight wins. The Broncos’ opponent is listed at +2500 to make the CFP.
Boise State is still being chased by a few other Group of Six programs with real momentum. James Madison, the reigning Sun Belt champion, is 3-0 and sits at +600. North Dakota State, a Mountain West newcomer, is also +600 and comes in at 4-0 overall and 1-0 in conference play.
James Madison’s toughest remaining game on paper is a trip to Appalachian State on Oct. 22.
The Mountaineers are listed at +6500 to make the CFP. North Dakota State’s next major test comes Oct. 24 at New Mexico in Albuquerque, and the Lobos are still hanging around the CFP picture at +1100.
The American Conference has five teams in the mix as well: UTSA (+1000), Memphis (+1200), South Florida (+1300), Tulsa (+2000) and Army (+2200).
DraftKings also posted CFP odds for seven Pac-12 teams: Boise State, Fresno State (+5000), Texas State (+6000), Oregon State (+10000), Colorado State (+10000), San Diego State (+12000) and Washington State (+25000).
For the Pac-12 title market, Boise State is the heavy favorite at -125. San Diego State follows at +600, then Texas State (+700), Fresno State (+900) and Oregon State (+1000).
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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In Other News...
Boise States Top Spot Comes With One Worry Fans Cant Ignore
Boise State kept its place in the Pac-12 race with a 38-24 win over South Dakota, part of a solid Week 3 showing for the leagues remaining members. Oregon State and Washington State also handled their business, giving the conference a much-needed round of positive results against FCS opponents and other non-conference matchups.
For the Broncos, though, the margin of comfort still feels slim. They got the win they needed, but the performance left just enough to wonder whether the top spot is as secure as it looks heading into next Saturdays games, when the pressure will pick up again for all three teams trying to build momentum. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States NFL Standouts Are Giving Fans Plenty To Track
Week Three gave Boise State fans a familiar kind of Sunday sweat, with nine former Broncos and one ex-head coach spread across the NFL slate. The list touched games in every corner of the schedule, from quarterback work and backfield touches to defensive snaps and special teams duties, a reminder of how deep the programs reach still runs once the college season gives way to pro football.
For Boise State followers, the appeal is not just seeing names on box scores but tracking how those players are being used and whether they can carve out bigger roles as the season settles in. The matchups brought mixed team results and a wide range of individual lines, leaving plenty for Broncos fans to keep tabs on as the next NFL weekend approaches. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Needs More From Jayden Virgin-Morgan For This Defense to Hold Up
Jayden Virgin-Morgan has long been one of the more important pieces of Boise States front seven, and as a fifth-year edge rusher and team captain, his value has never been measured only by sacks. Through three games of the 2024 season, though, his production has been quieter than the Broncos likely need from a player in his role. Coaches continue to point to the ways he affects the run game and disrupts opposing offenses, even when the box score stays modest.
Still, Boise States defense is looking for more pressure on quarterbacks, and that puts a spotlight on Virgin-Morgans next stretch of games. He has acknowledged the need to be more consistent, and the Broncos would benefit if his edge play starts showing up more often in the backfield. With the pass defense already under strain, getting more from one of its most experienced defenders feels less like a luxury and more like a requirement. [Read more 🡒]