No. 20 Boise State heads into Saturday night looking to stretch its winning streak to seven, and the market is expecting the Broncos to do most of the talking on the field.
Boise State hosts Texas State at Albertsons Stadium with kickoff set for 8 p.m. Mountain time. The Pac-12 matchup will air live nationally on The CW.
The Broncos are 6-1 overall and 3-0 in conference play, riding six straight victories since their Week 1 loss at then-No. 2 Oregon. That run has kept Boise State in the conversation as the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff, after the Broncos also reached the CFP in 2024.
Texas State enters at 4-3 and 2-1, sitting alone in third place in the Pac-12 standings behind Boise State and Oregon State, which is 5-2 and also 3-0. The Bobcats will have another major road test waiting after this one, with a trip to Corvallis next weekend.
This game also puts two of the nation’s most productive backs on the same stage. Boise State’s Dylan Riley ranks second nationally with 963 rushing yards and nine total touchdowns. Texas State senior Torrance Burgess Jr. is right there near the top as well, sitting fifth in the country with 889 rushing yards and five scores.
Oddsmakers have Boise State as a 10.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos are listed at -425 on the moneyline, while Texas State sits at +330.
National voices are leaning Boise State’s way, and for good reason. The Broncos have made a habit of starting games tight and finishing them with force.
Doug Douzable pointed to that pattern directly: “Boise State has just run through everybody in the Pac-12. And it’s crazy because a lot of the games, it’s close at half, and then they just open up in the second half.”
That framing lines up with how Boise State has been winning lately, especially with Riley. Douzable expects the running back to take over late against Texas State. Last week against Washington State, Riley was quiet for most of the game before breaking loose with fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards in a 31-10 win.
Dan Kanell is also sticking with the Broncos. “I’ve tried to fade them a couple times, hasn’t worked out great. So I’m just going to trust them to continue doing what they’ve been doing.”
Kanell highlighted what Maddux Madsen has done quietly this season, noting the quarterback has 14 passing touchdowns and zero turnovers. He thinks Boise State is locked in on a College Football Playoff push and will cover against Texas State.
Kenny Mellor sees the same kind of result, and he put some weight on the setting as well. “I think the Broncos avoid that slip-up against a team that they’re not very familiar with.”
Mellor said home-field advantage at Albertsons Stadium could be worth as much as three points in the line. He also pointed to Texas State’s secondary as a problem area that could set up a big night for Madsen and the passing game.
In Other News...
Boise State Enters Pac-12 With Two Huge Roster Questions
Boise States first season in the Pac-12 opens with the kind of cautious optimism that comes after a frustrating year and a solid exhibition run. The Broncos finished their tune-up games with wins, and Leon Rice said the group has made progress, but there is still a lot to sort out before the real games begin.
The uncertainty centers on two transfer additions who were supposed to help shape the roster right away. One is dealing with a significant knee injury, while the other is still waiting on a ruling that could determine whether he gets another year of eligibility, leaving Boise State to navigate the start of conference play with more questions than it would like. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Just Took A Clear Side In The Playoff Fight
Boise State coach Spencer Danielson has made it clear where he stands in the playoff debate, and it is not with the people pushing for a separate Group of Six bracket. With the College Football Playoff set to expand to 24 teams next season, Danielson sees the bigger field as the cleaner answer, one that gives the top teams from across the sport a real path without adding another layer of confusion.
For the Broncos, the change matters because the new format guarantees one Group of Six team a spot while opening the door to a larger field of at-large bids. Danielson also acknowledged that a format this big may force the sport to adjust around it, including possible changes to conference championship games or even the start of the season, but he appears more interested in making the system work than carving off a separate lane for the Group of Six. [Read more 🡒]