Boise State spent last season chasing the wrong kind of history, and now the Broncos are staring at a far more familiar kind of pressure. After making the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals for the first time in program history in 2024, Spencer Danielson’s team fell hard in 2025 and enters 2026 trying to prove that the dip was a detour, not a reset.
The expectations are still there. Boise State is again viewed as the favorite among Group of Six programs to reach the playoff, but the path back looks far steeper than it did a year ago.
The Broncos finished 9-5 last season, and the losses were not close ones: all five came by double digits, with four by 20 points or more. That kind of collapse changes the conversation quickly, even for a program that had just gone 12-1 in the regular season and punched its first CFP ticket.
If Boise State is going to get back, the fix has to start everywhere. The Broncos were 64th in SP+ last season, with marks of 55th on offense, 60th on defense and 91st on special teams. That profile does not scream playoff team, and it makes the climb obvious: there is a long way to go before Boise State looks like a CFP-caliber squad again.
The offense begins with Maddux Madsen. After a strong 2024, his production slipped last season, and injuries were part of the problem.
When Madsen was out, the offense cratered. When he came back, he still wasn’t as efficient as he had been as a sophomore.
Boise State needs more from the passing game, and a new group of wide receivers could be the spark for what was arguably the least effective offense in program history last year. The ground game should still carry plenty of weight, with Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley positioned to lead one of the nation’s most prolific rushing attacks behind an offensive line that returns three starters and adds Tyler Ethridge at left tackle.
On defense, the concern is less about one broken piece than the whole structure needing a lift. Tackling was the glaring issue.
Boise State finished 135th in PFF tackling grade as a team, the worst tackling season since PFF began tracking FBS games in 2014. Danielson and his staff have made it a priority in practice, and the spring featured more live periods than Danielson used in 2024 or 2025.
The talent is there for improvement, but it has to show up on the field.
The secondary is where the turnover hits hardest. Boise State lost five players who started multiple games last season, but there is belief the group can hold up thanks to transfers JeRico Washington Jr and Roman Tillmon.
Jaden Mickey, Sherrod Smith and Derek Ganter Jr. are expected to be key pieces in the rebuilt back end, while Jayden Virgin-Morgan has the kind of upside that could put him in the defensive player of the year conversation. Up front, the Broncos have returning talent and enough depth to think big if the effort level and tackling improve.
Then there’s the schedule, which may be the toughest Boise State has ever seen. The move from the Mountain West to the PAC-12 has wiped away a lot of the games where the Broncos would be expected to roll.
Last season, they were favored by 16.5 points or more six times. This year, SP+ projects only two such games: Utah State and South Dakota.
That makes 11-1 a much harder climb than it used to be, even before you factor in the quality of the conference slate.
The nonconference slate is just as brutal. Boise State opens at #2 Oregon, hosts Memphis, takes on FCS contender South Dakota, and finishes nonconference play against reigning MAC champion Western Michigan in Kalamazoo.
The easiest nonconference opponent, according to the analytics cited, would still be a bowl-level team in the MAC or Conference USA. There are no easy stretches built into this schedule.
Still, Boise State may not have to be flawless. If the Broncos do what they did in 2024 - lose close to Oregon and win everything else - they should land in the top 10 of the final CFP Poll and be safely in the field.
Even with a blowout loss to Oregon, 12-1 should be enough. And 11-2 could keep them alive too, especially with recent precedent on Boise State’s side from last season, when 11-2 Tulane, with a loss to CFP qualifier Ole Miss, was ranked ahead of 12-1 James Madison because of a much stronger schedule.
An 11-2 Boise State PAC-12 champion would have a real case, even if a 12-1 American champ or a 13-0 team from another league could still jump the line.
The numbers, though, are not exactly overflowing with optimism. ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State an 11.2% chance to make the CFP, while one model puts the Broncos at 12.1%.
SP+ has their odds of winning 11 or more games at 8.9%, which suggests the playoff odds probably sit in that same 11-13% range. Being the favorite among Group of Six teams does not mean the outcome is likely.
For a program that expects to be in this conversation every year, the data says a playoff berth is more of a rare event than a routine one.
That is what makes 2026 so defining. Boise State can have a strong season, maybe even win the PAC-12, and still fall short of the goal that matters most.
Anything less than a CFP bid is likely to leave the Broncos and their fans with a sour feeling. In the end, it all comes back to the same question: can Boise State get back to the CFP?
In Other News...
Dylan Riley Just Gave Boise State Fans A Reason To Smile
Dylan Riley gave Boise State fans a little extra reassurance this week by making clear where his head is at heading into the next stretch of his career. The junior running back, who led the Broncos in carries and rushing yards last season, said he feels a deep loyalty to the program and the people who believed in him, pointing back to the advice his late father gave him about staying true to those who support you.
For a team that has relied on Riley as one of its most productive pieces, that kind of commitment matters. He acknowledged there has been outside interest from other programs, but the message he sent was simple: money will not be the reason he walks away from Boise State, leaving the Broncos with at least one important answer even as the bigger picture around his future still hangs in the air. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Carries New Pac-12 Pressure Into Another CFP Push
Boise State heads into 2026 with a different kind of spotlight, and it is one the program knows well by now. The Broncos sit atop the reassembled Pac-12 in a preseason look at the Group of Six landscape, a nod to how much they have mattered in this space for years and how quickly the conference picture has shifted around them. In a ranking built from preseason ESPN FPI and Brian Fremeaus efficiency metrics, Boise State is the clear reference point for the league, with its path to another College Football Playoff push tied to the standard it has already set.
The bigger question is how that pressure lands once the season actually starts, especially with other Group of Six powers lining up behind them. UTSA is positioned to lead the American, James Madison is the favorite in the Sun Belt, UNLV headlines the Mountain West and Liberty is the name to watch in Conference USA, all part of a broader race shaped by coaching changes, returning players and a lot of preseason projection. For Boise State, the appeal is obvious: every week now comes with the expectation of looking like a playoff-caliber team, and the margin for anything less will be thin. [Read more 🡒]