A week into conference play, the Pac-12’s College Football Playoff picture has already tightened, and Saturday night in Fresno looks like a separator.
No. 23 Boise State and Fresno State meet in what amounts to a CFP elimination game, with both teams sitting at 4-1 overall and 1-0 in league play.
Kickoff is set for 8:30 p.m. Mountain time.
Boise State enters off a 37-18 home win over Utah State, and the Broncos are positioned as the Pac-12’s best CFP hope in the latest DraftKings Sportsbook update, where they carry the 12th-best odds nationally at +140. Fresno State checks in at +4000, while Oregon State sits at +6500.
The Broncos are also tracking the broader Group of Six race, where James Madison, North Dakota State, New Mexico and UTSA remain the main challengers for the automatic CFP bid. James Madison is listed at +400, North Dakota State at +425, New Mexico at +720 and UTSA at +1100.
On paper, Boise State’s résumé is the strongest of that bunch. ESPN’s FPI gives the Broncos the Pac-12’s toughest schedule among the top contenders at No.
- Oregon State is right behind at No. 50, while Fresno State is down at No.
That matters because the Broncos have already tested themselves against real resistance. Boise State has faced No.
9 Oregon and No. 57 Memphis, and still has No.
60 Oregon State and No. 63 Fresno State on the schedule.
The Broncos will host the Beavers on Saturday, Nov. 14.
James Madison, meanwhile, sits at 5-0 and 2-0 in the Sun Belt, but its schedule is much lighter. ESPN’s FPI ranks the Dukes’ strength of schedule No. 132 out of 138 FBS teams, and they will not face a top-70 FPI opponent this season.
North Dakota State’s path is even softer in that category, with a strength of schedule ranked No. 137.
The Bison do have one notable chance coming up, a road trip to FPI No. 39 New Mexico on Oct.
- The Lobos are 4-1 and 1-0, though their strength of schedule is still just 104th despite a road loss to No.
21 Oklahoma.
UTSA has its own case, helped by a signature win and a schedule that ranks No. 47 in strength of schedule. The Roadrunners are 4-1 and 1-0 in the American and have beaten middling Colorado State and Texas State, both of which are 2-3 and 0-1.
Saturday’s Boise State-Fresno State matchup is also reflected in the betting line, where the Broncos are favored by 6.5 points on the road. Boise State opened as a 9.5-point favorite, the spread fell as low as -5.5, then climbed back to its current number.
Elsewhere in the league, Oregon State is a 14.5-point home favorite against San Diego State on Saturday. The Pac-12’s other Week 6 game comes Friday night, when Washington State visits Utah State in a matchup of teams near the bottom of the standings. Utah State is favored by 5.5 points in Logan.
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Boise State Heads To Fresno With One Big Question Around Madsen
Maddux Madsens return to Fresno brings back some uncomfortable memories for Boise State, even if the quarterback has done plenty this season to suggest a much steadier night is ahead. The Broncos offense struggled badly in last years game after Madsen took right ankle and toe injuries, and this time he arrives as a much more settled presence, having thrown multiple touchdown passes without an interception while helping stabilize the attack.
Still, the matchup comes with the usual late-season complications. Both teams are dealing with key injuries, and the coaches have already made clear that the games demands will be shaped as much by health and depth as by scheme. For Boise State, the biggest question is whether Madsen can keep the offense on track in a place where things went wrong a year ago, against a Fresno State team that will be motivated to test him again. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Already Looms Large In Gonzagas Pac-12 Debut
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Boise State is already sitting near the center of that conversation. Along with Washington State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Utah State, the Broncos figure to be part of the early backbone of Gonzagas Pac-12 slate, the kind of opponent that could help define what this new era looks like. For Boise State, it adds another high-profile program to a league that is trying to establish a fresh identity fast, and the way those matchups settle in will tell plenty about how real the new rivalries feel. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Could Finally Get Help In A Fight Fans Know Too Well
College sports could be on the verge of another big reset, and Boise State is watching closely. A bipartisan bill called the Protect College Sports Act has already passed the U.S. Senate, setting up the possibility of federal rules for NIL payments, eligibility, and transfers that would apply across the sport instead of leaving schools to navigate a patchwork on their own.
For a program like Boise State, the appeal is obvious. Athletic director Jeremiah Dickey has pointed to restricted transfers and spending caps as possible ways to help retain athletes and protect non-revenue sports, two issues that have become familiar pain points in the current system. The bill is now stalled in the U.S. House of Representatives, but with former President Trump backing it, the conversation around college athletics reform is far from over. [Read more 🡒]