No. 23 Boise State is walking into Saturday night with a simple mission: end a three-game skid against Fresno State and bring the Milk Can trophy back to the Broncos.
The matchup kicks off at 8:30 p.m. Mountain time at Valley Children’s Stadium, with Boise State (4-1, 1-0 Pac-12) and Fresno State (4-1, 1-0) meeting in a rivalry game that will air nationally on The CW.
Both teams have bounced back from rough starts. Each opened the season with a loss on the road to a ranked Big Ten opponent, then rattled off four straight wins.
Boise State’s setback came in a competitive 34-27 loss to No. 13 Oregon.
Fresno State was handled by No. 19 USC, 39-0.
The Broncos enter as the favorite, sitting at 6.5 points in the latest DraftKings Sportsbook odds. Boise State is -250 on the moneyline, while Fresno State comes in at +205.
The question hanging over the night is whether Boise State can flip last year’s 30-7 loss on The Blue and get its first win over Fresno State since 2022.
National analysts see a game that could tilt in different directions, and the common thread is that Fresno State’s defense keeps showing up in these conversations.
Douzable’s rationale: “I think this is going to be a low-scoring game. The one thing about Fresno State and that defense, they will turn you over.”
Douzable pointed to Fresno State forcing two or more turnovers in four of its five games this season. His read is a tight one, with Boise State possibly escaping by seven.
Kanell’s rationale: “Dylan Riley is awesome … but I think Fresno State’s defense is able to contain him. … I think the wrong team is favored here.”
Kanell is leaning on Fresno State’s recent run against Boise State and thinks that history matters again on Saturday.
Mellor’s rationale: “Boise doesn’t need to only win these games in the Pac-12, they need to win them convincingly. And I think Spencer Danielson and company know that.”
Mellor sees Boise State’s offense as too loaded to ignore. He likes the Dylan Riley-led ground game and thinks Maddux Madsen can do damage through the air as well, while also suggesting the line is too short for a team with this many weapons.
Lagouretos’ rationale: “Fresno has covered the spread in its last four games and has a superior defense, allowing (4.2) points per game less than Boise.”
Lagouretos believes Fresno State has settled in after that lopsided opening loss at USC and points to the Bulldogs’ stronger scoring defense through five games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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In Other News...
Boise State Just Lost A Key Weapon For Fresno State
Boise State heads into its matchup with Fresno State dealing with a thinner-than-usual receiver room, and the biggest absence is a familiar one for anyone who watched last weeks win over Utah State. True freshman wideout Rasean Jones will not play after leaving that game following a helmet-to-helmet hit, taking away one of the Broncos more dynamic first-year contributors at an inconvenient time.
Jones has become a key piece in Boise States passing game as a true freshman, so his absence changes the look of the offense even before the ball is snapped. The Broncos are also dealing with several other players who have already been ruled out or listed as unavailable, though there is better news in the backfield, where running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines are expected to be available after recent injuries. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Just Found Passing Game Help In An Unexpected Place
Boise States 38-31 win over Fresno State offered a glimpse of where the passing game might be headed if the Broncos have to keep piecing things together on the fly. Underclassmen Terrious Favors, Qumonte Williams Jr. and Quinton Brown all stepped into bigger roles and combined for six catches and 55 yards, while quarterback Maddux Madsen spread the ball to nine different teammates in a game that looked a lot less top-heavy than Boise States offense has sometimes been.
The urgency behind that shift was obvious, too, with the Broncos leaning on younger receivers because of injuries to key starters. Head coach Spencer Danielson and Madsen both came away encouraged by what they saw from that group, and the performance gave Boise State something it has been searching for as the season moves along: a little more confidence that the next wave of pass catchers can handle real snaps when the game asks for them. [Read more 🡒]
Boise State Enters Fresno State Rivalry With One Big Concern
Boise State heads into its Milk Can rivalry game with Fresno State in a familiar spot: highly ranked in the Mountain West chase, favored by 8.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook and tied with the Bulldogs at 4-1. The timing also adds a little extra weight, with UNLV hosting North Dakota State in another game that could help shape the league picture while Boise State and Fresno State renew a rivalry that usually carries more than bragging rights.
The bigger issue for the Broncos is availability, because they will be without starting wide receivers Rasean Jones and Cam Bates, along with left guard Carson Rasmussen. Jones has been the teams most productive target so far, and losing that kind of production on the perimeter changes how Boise State can approach a game that already demands clean execution up front and enough balance to keep Fresno State from keying on one side of the offense. [Read more 🡒]