Boise State enters Week 11 in a strong spot atop the new-look Pac-12, but the Broncos may be getting too much respect when they host Oregon State.
At 5-0 in conference play, Boise State can drop a game and still hold sole possession of first place. That also keeps the Broncos in a favorable position for the College Football Playoff if they can survive the rest of the regular season. Still, the matchup with Oregon State looks tighter than the number suggests.
The Beavers are 5-4, but that record doesn’t tell the whole story. Oregon State has been one of the more pass-heavy teams in the country, ranking second nationally with 61.22% of its offensive plays coming through the air.
That puts a lot on quarterback Braden Atkinson, whose performance has swung the Beavers’ results. He was sharp against San Diego State, and Oregon State was in position to win.
He struggled last week against Texas State, and the offense unraveled.
That inconsistency is the key to Saturday’s game. If Atkinson is on, Oregon State has a real chance to stay inside the number. If he’s off, Boise State can take control.
The numbers also point toward a closer game than the spread implies. Boise State ranks 39th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, while Oregon State sits 58th. But the Beavers have actually been better in net yards per play, holding a +1.03 edge compared with Boise State’s +0.34.
There’s also a matchup issue for the Broncos on defense. To separate from Oregon State, Boise State has to slow the passing game, and that’s been its biggest weakness. The Broncos are 97th in opponent EPA per pass entering the week.
That gives Oregon State a clear path to hanging around: attack through the air and make Boise State defend the part of the field where it has struggled most.
Oregon State at Boise State looks like a game where the Beavers can do enough to keep it close, especially if Atkinson delivers one of his better outings.
In Other News...
Boise State Fans Have One Big GameDay Concern This Weekend
ESPNs College GameDay is bringing its full traveling circus to Boise States campus on Saturday, Nov. 14, setting up a three-hour pregame show before the Broncos meet Oregon State. The appearance gives Boise State another national spotlight moment, and the event is free for fans, with gates opening early in the morning for those hoping to get a spot near the set.
The only real concern hanging over the day is the weather, since forecasts call for rain overnight before the broadcast. By showtime, though, conditions are expected to turn mostly sunny, which should ease some of the anxiety for fans planning to spend the morning outside and add to the kind of atmosphere GameDay is built for. [Read more 🡒]
Boise States Biggest Game Suddenly Has A Very Unusual Problem
Boise States biggest game on the schedule has picked up an unusual travel wrinkle, with the Federal Aviation Administration grounding all flights in the United States for safety reasons. The nationwide pause has rippled through college football, creating headaches for several programs that were counting on air travel to get to their weekend destinations.
For Boise State, the immediate concern is Oregon State, which is still trying to sort out how to make the trip to Corvallis ahead of the matchup. The Beavers are exploring alternative travel options, including charter buses, while the broader disruption has already touched multiple games around the sport and left schedules in flux. [Read more 🡒]