The race for the Group of Six in 2026 has a new wrinkle: the Pac-12 is back, and even in its stripped-down eight-team version, it sits at the top of the pecking order.
That’s the starting point for a fresh look at the six leagues most likely to produce a College Football Playoff team, using combined averages of preseason ESPN FPI and Brian Fremeau’s efficiency rankings. From strongest to weakest, the list begins with the Pac-12 and runs through the MAC, with a favorite and a dark horse in each conference.
Boise State opens as the Pac-12’s betting favorite at FanDuel, and the Broncos have the kind of continuity that matters in a league still finding its footing again. Spencer Danielson is back for his fourth season, carrying a 24-8 record and a CFP appearance from 2024. Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns after a rough 2025 in which he completed 58.3 percent of his throws for 2,334 yards, and running back Dylan Riley gives Boise State another proven piece after stepping in for Ashton Jeanty and producing 1,125 rushing yards on 195 carries with 12 total touchdowns.
San Diego State is the team lurking behind Boise State. Sean Lewis is entering his third year with the Aztecs, who finished 9-4 last season, and the roster has enough punch to make things interesting. Lucky Sutton led the conference with 1,297 rushing yards, while quarterback Jayden Denegal, a former Michigan recruit, is back for more continuity even if his 150.6 passing yards per game as a redshirt junior leave plenty of room for growth.
The American comes next, and oddsmakers have put UTSA in the favorite’s seat after the league sent Tulane to the CFP last season. The Roadrunners bring back fifth-year quarterback Owen McCown, the son of former NFL quarterback Josh McCown, and he was productive across the board in 2025: 67.6 percent completions, 2,995 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions. A redshirt sophomore running back also gives UTSA a dangerous ground game after averaging 6.9 yards per carry last season.
East Carolina is the name to watch if the Pirates can get stability under center. Blake Harrell is heading into his second full season as head coach and has gone 14-5 since taking over in an interim role midway through 2024.
The quarterback competition features Mitch Griffis, a seven-year senior transfer from Texas Tech, and Emory Williams, a fourth-year Miami transfer. No matter who wins the job, East Carolina should have a Power Four veteran running the offense.
In the Sun Belt, James Madison remains a market favorite even after Bob Chesney left for UCLA. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season that ended in a CFP trip, but Billy Napier now takes over and faces the task of replacing quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who moved on to UCF.
Napier’s old program, Louisiana, could have plenty to say about the Sun Belt race. Quarterback Lunch Winfield is positioned for a bigger year after flashing real promise in 2025, when he started the final eight games and threw for 1,426 yards while adding 519 more on the ground. Napier didn’t hide his view of him at conference media days, saying, "He's incredible," and adding, "This quarterback they have coming back is a problem."
The Mountain West has been shaken up by defections to the Pac-12, and that opens the door for UNLV. Dan Mullen’s team could be the one to seize the moment, especially if transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold delivers after a frustrating SEC run.
New Mexico also belongs in the conversation after a 9-4 season in Jason Eck’s first year. The Lobos return a number of upperclassmen from that group and added a notable piece in seventh-year wide receiver Troy Omeire, who came over from UNLV after catching 31 passes for 514 yards and five touchdowns in 2025.
Conference USA may have a shaky favorite in Liberty, but the Flames still sit atop the league despite a 4-8 season and uncertainty at quarterback. Delaware is the more intriguing threat. In only its second FBS season, the Blue Hens already have one of the best Group of Six quarterbacks in Nick Minicucci and could make a real push at the title.
At the bottom of the ranking, the MAC still has a path to the playoff conversation through Toledo or Miami. Toledo is trying to keep moving after losing Jason Candle to UConn, while Miami comes off a 7-5 regular season but still reached the MAC title game with a 6-2 conference mark under Chuck Martin. The RedHawks return enough pieces to think that brief taste of success might not be the last of it.
In Other News...
Boise State Faces One Brutal Test In Its CFP Push
Boise State enters the new season trying to reset after a 9-5 finish in 2025 and with the larger goal still clear: get back into the College Football Playoff. The Broncos know the answer has to come from everywhere, not just one side of the ball, with quarterback play, tackling and a rebuilt secondary all marked as key areas to clean up as they move deeper into the PAC-12.
The schedule is not going to make that task easier. Boise States transition into the new conference brings a tougher week-to-week grind, and that leaves the Broncos with little margin for the kind of uneven stretches that hurt them a year ago. If they are going to turn a promising offseason plan into a real CFP push, they will have to prove it against a level of competition that can expose any lingering flaws. [Read more 🡒]
Dylan Riley Just Gave Boise State Fans A Reason To Smile
Dylan Riley gave Boise State fans a little extra reassurance this week by making clear where his head is at heading into the next stretch of his career. The junior running back, who led the Broncos in carries and rushing yards last season, said he feels a deep loyalty to the program and the people who believed in him, pointing back to the advice his late father gave him about staying true to those who support you.
For a team that has relied on Riley as one of its most productive pieces, that kind of commitment matters. He acknowledged there has been outside interest from other programs, but the message he sent was simple: money will not be the reason he walks away from Boise State, leaving the Broncos with at least one important answer even as the bigger picture around his future still hangs in the air. [Read more 🡒]