College football’s spending spree is supposed to buy stability, depth and a margin for error. Right now, three of the sport’s biggest bankrolls are getting none of it.
Texas A&M, Oregon and Michigan entered 2026 with three of the 14 largest roster budgets in college football, and all three have already taken at least two losses before the season reaches its midpoint. The numbers are staggering, but the record is even louder: the Aggies, Ducks and Wolverines are a combined 9-7, a reminder that expensive rosters still have to play like expensive rosters.
The Athletic estimated in September that Oregon was working with between $48 million and $54 million, second only to Ohio State. Texas A&M checked in fifth at $45 million to $50 million, while Michigan was projected at $36 million to $40 million.
That kind of investment usually comes with Playoff expectations. It also comes with pressure when the results turn messy.
Texas A&M is feeling it hardest. Mike Elko, who signed a six-year extension worth more than $11 million annually after last year’s 11-2 Playoff run, opened 2026 ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25. Six games later, the Aggies are 3-3 overall and 1-3 in SEC play.
The losses have all been by double digits, and the latest was especially ugly: a 27-6 defeat at Missouri. Texas A&M managed just 216 total yards and converted five of 18 third downs. Quarterback Marcel Reed and new play-caller Holmon Wiggins, who took over for Collin Klein this offseason, have not found a rhythm, and ESPN’s efficiency ratings have the offense 92nd nationally.
“So we’re in a really bad spot right now, but we’ll work our way out of it,” Elko said after the loss.
The path out is narrow. A&M needs three wins in its final six games just to become bowl eligible, and the schedule still includes a trip to Alabama on Oct. 24 and a home game against Texas. After Week 6, Elko already landed on our latest college football hot seat index.
Oregon came into the year carrying the second-largest estimated roster budget in the sport and a returning starter at quarterback in Dante Moore. None of that has kept the Ducks from stumbling to two losses after opening at No. 2 in the AP poll.
Their first setback came when Oklahoma State, whose roster budget The Athletic estimated at $15 million to $19 million, beat Oregon 39-31 in Stillwater on Sept. 12. Dan Lanning did not hide his frustration afterward.
“We did not perform at any level that was winning football,” Lanning said.
Then came Saturday’s 17-15 home loss to unbeaten UCLA, and that one cut deeper because Moore was out with a concussion. Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola filled in and struggled badly, completing six of 19 passes for 43 yards with two interceptions. Lanning went to third-stringer Brock Thomas in the fourth quarter.
The Ducks finished with seven turnovers and just one conversion in 11 third-down tries. Defensive tackle Bear Alexander’s controversial hit on UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava could also bring Big Ten discipline. ESPN now gives Oregon just a 9.8% chance to reach the Playoff, and 5-1 Nebraska visits Autzen Stadium on Saturday.
Michigan’s money problem looks different, but the record is just as jarring. The Wolverines and Indiana are tied at an estimated $36 million to $40 million in roster spending, but while the Hoosiers are 6-0 and one of nine undefeated teams left in the sport, Michigan is 3-2 and still looking for its first Big Ten win under first-year coach Kyle Whittingham.
Whittingham’s first season has already turned into a grind. Michigan opened with a 13-12 win over Western Michigan decided by a disputed Hail Mary, then lost 20-19 at home to Iowa on the final play and fell 20-14 at Minnesota, snapping a run of success there that dated to 1977. Against the Golden Gophers, the Wolverines produced only 180 yards and failed to top 20 points for the fourth time in five games.
“I’ve been in this profession 40-some years, and this is the biggest challenge I’ve had,” Whittingham said. He also said, “We might have to make some tough decisions here,” which cast uncertainty over sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood’s role during the bye week. Michigan hosts Penn State on Saturday.
Penn State has problems of its own, despite a roster built with an estimated $29 million to $32 million budget and a staff-led personnel push that brought in 24 former Iowa State players, including quarterback Rocco Becht. Matt Campbell’s team beat Marshall, Temple and Buffalo, then hit a wall with losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and USC.
Northwestern ran for 413 yards in a 34-13 win on Oct. 2, and the 31-23 loss to USC came before a Beaver Stadium-record crowd of 114,419.
Penn State heads to Michigan for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday, with both programs still searching for their first Big Ten win.
In Other News...
TCU Offense Faces A Brutal Test Against Surging Baylor
The matchup at McLane Stadium on Oct. 17 comes with a built-in contrast: TCU arrives trying to find answers after an uneven start, while Baylor has put itself in position to keep moving up in the Big 12 race. The Bears are 4-1 overall and 2-0 in league play, and the Horned Frogs are 2-3 with an 0-2 conference mark, making this feel like a game where one team is trying to steady its season and the other is trying to protect the momentum it has built.
For TCU, the concern has been turning offense into actual production against Power Four competition, while Baylors edge has come from a more complete performance on both sides of the ball. The Bears have been efficient enough to stay in control of games and difficult enough on defense to keep opponents from settling in, which is why this trip to Waco looks like a real test for TCU and a chance for Baylor to keep its conference run intact. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Has A Real Chance To Pull Away From TCU Again
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The Horned Frogs do bring resistance on defense, and they have enough athleticism to make this more than a simple home-field spot for Baylor. Still, the bigger question is whether the Bears can turn opportunities into real separation in a game that could hinge on field position and efficiency near the goal line. If Baylor handles the details cleanly, it has a real chance to widen the gap again in the Big 12 race. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Faces Its First Real Big 12 Test Against TCU
Baylor reaches a point in the schedule where the margin for error starts to shrink, and the matchup with TCU is the kind of game that helps sort out whether a strong opening can turn into something more lasting. Week 7 brings a slate of Big 12 games with real weight around the league, but this one stands out for the Bears because it is the first test that feels like it can say plenty about where they belong in the conference race.
TCU gives Baylor an opponent that can expose any soft spots while also offering a chance to make a statement in a crowded league picture. The Bears have handled the early part of Big 12 play well enough to get attention, but this is the game that begins to show whether they can keep that footing when the competition tightens and the path ahead gets less forgiving. [Read more 🡒]