TCU heads into Saturday’s Revivalry with a familiar problem and a very different kind of opponent waiting at McLane Stadium.
The Frogs and Baylor kick off at 6 p.m. CT in Waco, with both teams coming off a bye. On paper, the contrast is sharp: Baylor is 4-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big 12, while TCU sits at 2-3 and 0-2.
The raw yardage numbers are close enough to suggest a competitive game. Baylor is averaging 461.4 yards per game; TCU is at 405.4.
But the scoring output tells the real story. Baylor is putting up 34.8 points per game, while TCU is averaging 25.4.
For TCU, the issue is not moving the ball. It’s cashing in once it gets there.
Against Power Four opponents - North Carolina, UCF and BYU - the Frogs have managed only three touchdowns, one in each game. Those outings produced point totals of 10, 13 and 10, or 11 points per game across that stretch.
The season average looks better only because of the wins over Grambling State and Arkansas State.
That’s the offensive burden TCU carries into this matchup. Yardage without touchdowns won’t be enough.
The defense, though, has given the Frogs something to work with. TCU is allowing just 13.4 points and 255 yards per game, which compares favorably with Baylor’s 14.2 points and 326.6 yards allowed.
Even that strong defensive showing against BYU ended in frustration. TCU held the Cougars to 216 total yards but still came up short in a 17-10 loss. The defense did its part; the offense did not, and the Frogs also missed the late stop they needed.
That’s been the recurring theme. TCU has repeatedly gotten defensive efforts good enough to keep games in reach, but those performances haven’t been enough to turn close games into wins against Power Four competition.
Baylor, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. After opening with a loss to Auburn, the Bears have won four straight and look like a team settling into a clear identity.
Their latest statement came in a 55-19 win at Arizona State. DJ Lagway went 25 of 40 for 306 yards and a career-high four touchdown passes, and he also ran for a score. The Bears’ ground game made noise, too, piling up 244 rushing yards with touchdown runs of 63 and 75 yards.
Gavin Freeman has been a steady target in the passing game. Through five games, he has 42 catches for 479 yards and two touchdowns.
Baylor’s defense has backed it all up by holding every opponent to 19 points or fewer. This is not a team living on offense alone.
That matters for TCU, because Baylor can beat teams in more than one way. The Frogs cannot afford to key entirely on Lagway and assume the rest will fall apart.
The bye week gave Sonny Dykes and his staff time to sort through the offensive issues. Now the answer has to show up on the field. TCU simply cannot keep surviving on one-touchdown performances against Power Four opponents and expect a better result.
The defense should keep the Frogs in it again. The question is whether the offense can finally do enough to match.
A loss would send TCU to 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the Big 12. Baylor would stay unbeaten in conference play.
History does give TCU a reason for confidence. The Frogs have won nine of the last 11 meetings, including a 42-36 victory last year.
Still, the present numbers lean Baylor’s way. If TCU can get to 24 points, its defense could make things interesting. But that’s a target, not a promise.
At this point, TCU doesn’t need another explanation for why the offense should be better. It needs a Saturday when it actually is.
In Other News...
Baylor Has A Real Chance To Pull Away From TCU Again
Baylor comes out of its bye week with a little momentum and a chance to make a meaningful statement at home against TCU. The Bears are fresh off a strong win, and the timing is useful with a rivalry game waiting at McLane Stadium, where Baylors offense has shown enough balance to create problems if it can keep the pressure on. Lagways recent play gives this matchup an interesting edge, especially against a TCU defense that has generally held up against the run.
The Horned Frogs do bring resistance on defense, and they have enough athleticism to make this more than a simple home-field spot for Baylor. Still, the bigger question is whether the Bears can turn opportunities into real separation in a game that could hinge on field position and efficiency near the goal line. If Baylor handles the details cleanly, it has a real chance to widen the gap again in the Big 12 race. [Read more 🡒]
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TCU gives Baylor an opponent that can expose any soft spots while also offering a chance to make a statement in a crowded league picture. The Bears have handled the early part of Big 12 play well enough to get attention, but this is the game that begins to show whether they can keep that footing when the competition tightens and the path ahead gets less forgiving. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Enters A Prove-It Season With Plenty To Silence
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There is also a major piece back in the middle in Juslin Bodo Bodo, whose presence gives Baylor something it did not have a year ago. Combined with a preseason projection that left the Bears lower than they are used to, it sets up a year where the pressure is obvious and the early chances to answer it will come quickly. [Read more 🡒]