Baylor’s season is setting up with an uncomfortable sense of déjà vu.
The Bears are piling up the kind of passing numbers that usually live in the program record book, but they’re also staring at the same ugly outcome they saw a year ago: a strong statistical profile and not enough wins to make it matter. At 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big 12, Baylor is already in a tighter spot than the record suggests after a 17-6 home loss to TCU.
Quarterback DJ Lagway and wide receiver Gavin Freeman are right in the middle of it. Lagway has thrown for 1,116 yards and eight touchdowns through four appearances, averaging 279 passing yards per game. On that pace over a 12-game season, he’d finish with 3,348 yards, which would rank seventh in Baylor history.
Freeman has been just as productive. Through six games, he has 49 catches for 555 yards and two touchdowns, good for 92.5 receiving yards per game.
If he keeps that rate over the full regular season, he’d reach 1,110 yards, which would place him eighth on Baylor’s single-season list. He’s also averaging 8.2 receptions a game, a pace that would produce 98 catches and rank second in program history behind Kendall Wright’s 108 in 2011.
It would also make Freeman Baylor’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Denzel Mims in 2019.
But the numbers haven’t carried Baylor where it wants to go.
Against TCU on Saturday, Lagway was under pressure all game and finished 22 of 53 for 256 yards and an interception. His 41.5% completion rate was a career low.
Freeman still managed seven catches for 76 yards, but Baylor never got into the end zone. The Bears totaled just 310 yards, including 54 on the ground, and gave up four sacks.
That result echoed the warning signs from last season, when Baylor’s offense put up huge numbers and still missed a bowl game. Sawyer Robertson passed for 3,681 yards and 31 touchdowns, the fifth-most passing yards in a single season in program history, and Michael Trigg set a school single-season record for tight ends with 694 receiving yards. Even with that production, Baylor finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play.
The difference between the two seasons has been where the breakdown is happening.
In 2025, the defense was the problem. Baylor gave up 32.6 points per game, and even when the offense moved the ball well, the Bears were constantly trying to outrun defensive mistakes.
This year, the defense has been doing its part. Baylor held each of its first five opponents to 20 points or fewer, the program’s longest such streak to open a season since 1966.
That included keeping TCU to 17 points and only 33 rushing yards.
Still, that wasn’t enough. Baylor lost by 11 because the offense couldn’t finish drives.
The run game has been especially shaky. Against TCU, Baylor had just 54 rushing yards, and Lagway spent much of the afternoon dealing with a pass rush that produced four sacks. The Bears have been more consistent defensively than they were a year ago, but the offense hasn’t been reliable enough to make that edge count.
And the schedule is not offering much relief. Baylor needs two more wins to reach bowl eligibility, but that task gets harder from here.
The Bears go to Kansas on Saturday, then face UCF and Iowa State. After that comes a brutal closing stretch: No.
2 BYU, No. 8 Texas Tech and No.
14 Houston.
BYU and Texas Tech enter Week 8 unbeaten, and Houston has emerged as another Big 12 contender. Baylor can absolutely still win one of those games, but if the Bears are still chasing bowl eligibility when that stretch arrives, they’ll be in a difficult spot.
So the story of Baylor’s season is already familiar: big numbers, eye-catching projections and a record that could still leave the Bears with more frustration than celebration. Lagway and Freeman are on pace to join the program’s all-time statistical leaders, but Baylor already learned last season that that alone doesn’t rescue a disappointing finish.
In Other News...
Baylors Kansas Loss Just Raised Bigger Questions Than One Game
A 14-game winning streak over Kansas finally came to an end in the most frustrating way possible, with Baylor leaving the field after a last-second blocked field goal. For a program that has treated this matchup as one of its most dependable advantages, the loss landed as more than just a blemish on the schedule. The bigger concern was how uneven the performance looked from start to finish, with the offense laboring to reach 17 points and the defense giving up a season-high 25.
For Dave Aranda, the result only adds to the scrutiny that has followed a disappointing stretch for the Bears. There is already speculation that the game could wind up being the final chapter of his seven-season run in Waco, and this one did little to quiet that conversation. When a streak ends, it usually prompts a reset in perspective. In this case, it may end up forcing an even larger reckoning about where Baylor goes next. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Gets A Timely Boost Before A Pivotal Kansas Test
Baylor heads into its meeting with Kansas carrying the same five players on the unavailable list that it had for the TCU game, including two season-ending injuries, so the injury report is still doing some heavy lifting for a team trying to stabilize its depth. Even so, there was a small but meaningful sign of progress: juniors Nate Kibble and Devon Jordan were not listed as questionable after both were limited last time out, which gives the Bears a little more room to maneuver as they prepare for a pivotal Big 12 test.
Head coach Dave Aranda also said quarterback DJ Lagway is still working his way back from a high-ankle sprain, but is moving closer to full strength. Baylor does not need a long injury update to know what is at stake against Kansas, and any added availability could matter as the Bears try to piece together the right lineup for a game that carries real weight in the conference race. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Just Turned A Brutal Start Into A Statement Win
Baylor volleyball spent a long night digging out of a two-set hole, but the Bears kept finding answers at the Ferrell Center and turned it into a 3-2 comeback over Houston. Ksenia Rakhmanchik led the way with 23 kills, while Bailey Warren added 12 kills off the bench to give Baylor the kind of spark that can change a match, especially once the momentum finally began to swing.
The bigger milestone came with the result itself, since the victory was Ryan McGuyres 250th at Baylor and moved him past everyone else in program history for career wins. For a team that looked in trouble early, it became the sort of night that says as much about resilience as it does about the resume-building win attached to it. [Read more 🡒]