ESPN’s latest Football Power Index puts Baylor in a familiar but workable spot: not among the Big 12’s elite, but squarely in the mix.
The updated FPI, released June 30, slots the Bears at No. 37 nationally with a 6.5 rating, good for sixth among the conference’s 16 teams. ESPN’s model projects Baylor to finish 6.6-5.5, gives the Bears a 68.8% shot at bowl eligibility and pegs them at 3.2% to win the Big 12. Their College Football Playoff odds sit at 6%.
At the top of the league, Texas Tech has separated itself from the pack. The Red Raiders check in at No. 10 nationally with a 20.0 FPI rating and a projected 10.8-1.8 record. ESPN gives them a 45.9% chance to win the conference, the highest mark in the Big 12.
Behind Texas Tech, the league bunches up quickly. BYU is ranked No. 20, followed by Utah at No.
31, Arizona at No. 34 and Houston at No. 35.
Baylor lands just behind Houston at No. 37.
That middle tier is crowded enough to make every week matter. Houston’s 7.1 rating is only 0.6 points ahead of Baylor, while TCU is right behind the Bears at 6.4. Kansas State follows at 5.1, underscoring how little room there is between several teams expected to fight for position in the conference.
ESPN’s numbers paint Baylor as a team that can compete, but not yet one that sits in the Big 12’s top class. What the model can’t fully capture is the potential rise tied to Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, who is entering his first fully healthy collegiate preseason and is back in his home state.
For Baylor, the sixth-place conference ranking is a decent launch point heading into fall camp. It also puts a spotlight on the games against the teams clustered just above and below the Bears, where small margins could have a big say in how the season unfolds.
With less than a point separating Baylor from Houston and TCU, those matchups could end up shaping whether the Bears simply get to a bowl or force their way into the Big 12 title conversation.
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