Baylor enters 2026 with the biggest question in the Big 12 sitting squarely on Dave Aranda’s shoulders: can the portal overhaul actually work this time?
That’s the backdrop after a 5-7 finish in 2025, a season that looked promising early when the Bears opened 4-2 but quickly unraveled. A year earlier, plenty of people - including college football mogul Phil Steele - saw Baylor as a legitimate conference contender with 18 starters and Sawyer Robinson back. Instead, the Bears faded, missed a bowl, and now face a far less familiar roster.
The turnover is massive. Just five players are back from last year’s team, and only one of them started on offense: right tackle Kaden Sieracki Jr.
Aranda went shopping in the transfer portal and brought in six offensive starters, highlighted by former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway from Florida, along with seven new defenders, including former Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. The fit will be worth watching, but the larger issue is whether this collection can buy Aranda enough time on a contract that runs through 2029.
Lagway is the centerpiece of the reset. His Florida numbers show why Baylor made the move: 4,179 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 19 sacks in his sophomore season.
He also ran 121 times and finished with just over 2.0 yards per carry on the ground. Baylor is clearly betting that a change of scenery can unlock more consistency after a frustrating ending to his time with the Gators.
He won’t have a deep list of proven targets waiting for him. Oklahoma State transfer Gavin Freeman looks like the cleanest answer at receiver, and running back Dawson Pendergrass returns after averaging 5.5 yards per carry in 2024. That gives the Bears at least a few known pieces, but the offense is still very much under construction.
The same goes for the defensive front. Baylor is again trying to patch things together with outside help, adding eight transfers up front, including Hosea Wheeler from national champion Indiana.
That move is meant to address a run defense that struggled a year ago, when the Bears allowed 4.9 yards per carry and finished with just 12 sacks. Devnote Tezino is back at tackle, but Baylor is leaning heavily on transfer experience to toughen up in the trenches.
That’s been a recurring issue for Aranda’s program. Baylor won the Big 12 in 2021 and capped that season by beating Ole Miss 21-7 in the Sugar Bowl, but the momentum hasn’t held. The staff has also seen plenty of turnover, moving from OC Larry Fedora to DC Jeff Grimes to Klanderman and now OC Jake Spavital in 2026.
And the schedule doesn’t make the path any easier. November closes with Iowa State, BYU in Utah, Texas Tech and Houston in Texas, a brutal stretch for a team still trying to find itself.
Baylor was already handled 55-28 by a No. 15 Utah team last year in Waco, and the best chances for Big 12 wins on the slate appear to be against Iowa State on Nov. 7, at Kansas on Oct. 24 and against Colorado on Sept.
The Bears have shown they can flash. That much is not in doubt. But flash doesn’t carry much weight when a program is sitting near bowl-eligibility territory five years after a conference title.
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