Dave Aranda spent the preseason under a harsh spotlight, but five weeks into Baylor’s 2026 season, the picture around him looks a lot different.
The Bears opened with a painful 17-16 loss, then flipped the script with four straight wins to stay unbeaten in Big 12 play. The latest one was the loudest by far: a 55-19 road win over Arizona State, powered by a defense that forced three turnovers and a quarterback who finally looked like himself again.
That kind of turnaround doesn’t just change a record. It changes the conversation.
Aranda entered the year with plenty of baggage. Baylor had gone from a Big 12 title in 2021 to just one winning season and a 22-28 overall mark over the next four years.
The defense, once the program’s strength, had slid all the way to the bottom fifth nationally. In response, Aranda gave up defensive play-calling duties to new coordinator Joe Klanderman, but that didn’t stop the criticism from piling up.
Some national voices were already suggesting Baylor would have moved on after 2025 if not for the departure of athletic director Mack Rhoades.
Instead, Aranda got another year, and Baylor went aggressive in the transfer portal. The biggest addition was former five-star quarterback prospect DJ Lagway, who arrived in Waco after two years in Gainesville. The Bears also brought in multiple starting offensive linemen, slot receiver Gavin Freeman, and pieces on all levels of the defense.
The offense needed time. The defense didn’t.
Baylor held Byrum Brown and the Auburn Tigers to 17 points in Week 1, then gave up just 35 combined points over the next three games. Even with two senior starters lost to season-ending injuries - safety Jacob Redding before the opener and defensive tackle Devonte Tezino after two games - the unit kept climbing. Entering Week 6, Baylor’s defense sits 29th nationally in ESPN’s SP+.
That matters for Aranda. He no longer has the play sheet in his hands, but he still has the final say on the defensive plan, and the bounce-back has put real credit back in his corner. Add in Baylor’s strong special teams, and the Bears have built their early success on the parts of the team Aranda has the most control over.
Lagway was supposed to be the offensive headline, though September didn’t go according to script. A severe ankle sprain knocked him out for multiple games, but even before the injury he had already flashed the same inconsistency that marked the early stretch. His fumble on the play where he first hurt the ankle led directly to points, and a poor throw at the goal line kept Baylor from winning that game.
When he returned, he still looked limited and didn’t have the mobility that makes him such a tough cover.
“There was a great field goal by Rhett [Armstrong], it was at 54 yards, and we were trying to get closer to it," Aranda said during the postgame press conference. "I think if we're in a position where we weren't fighting back from an injury, he probably runs it there, DJ does. I think he threw it out of bounds where he could have scrambled or ran.
"You want the full opened-up thing. We have to work our way toward that."
That fuller version showed up against Arizona State. Lagway was sharp, throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns while adding an 11-yard scramble for a score. The performance earned him Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Aranda deserves some of the credit there, too. Lagway said last month that his relationship with the Baylor coach helped make the move possible.
"I've known coach Aranda since I was a freshman in high school," Lagway said. "Being able to have that relationship with him has been great. So, when I got up there on a visit, everything just kind of made sense to me and my family."
What happens next still matters. Lagway’s long-term future in Waco remains unclear, but if he keeps producing like this, that becomes another point in Aranda’s favor with the people making the decisions.
For now, Baylor has given its coach breathing room, not a full escape hatch. The next four opponents have only two combined wins over FBS teams with winning records, which gives the Bears a real chance to keep stacking victories. But the back end of the schedule could still make things messy, especially if Baylor goes 0-3 against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston.
If the Bears can win one of those three and keep taking care of business in the meantime, Aranda’s outlook changes fast. He’s not off the hot seat yet, but he’s gotten close enough to make the conversation a lot less certain than it was a month ago.
In Other News...
Baylor WBB Is Bringing Former Bears Back For A Special Weekend
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The weekend will also fold into game action, with alumni set to be recognized during the home game against East Texas A&M before a postgame celebration wraps things up. Registration is already open, and Baylor has also begun taking season-ticket purchases for the 2026-27 season, with single-game tickets to go on sale later. [Read more 🡒]
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There was still some positive movement elsewhere on the ledger. Jalen Pitre and Terrel Bernard both turned in active defensive outings with multiple tackles and plays that showed up on the stat sheet, while Josh Cameron chipped in as a receiver and on special teams. On the defensive line side, Lynch was inactive for his latest game, but his path could open a bit more after a teammates retirement, leaving Baylor followers with one more development to watch as the NFL season unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
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Still, the conference table is starting to matter. Baylor is 9-5 overall and 1-3 in league play, so the margin for error is thin, even before the road environment and the pressure that comes with trying to stop a slide. Isabela Haggard and Ksenia Rakhmanchik have been among the Bears most important statistical presences in the Big 12, and their production will loom large again as Baylor tries to get back on track. [Read more 🡒]