Baylor’s latest bowl projection only sharpens the same old question around the program: what actually counts as a successful season?
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released their bowl projections for the upcoming year, and they split on the Bears. Schlabach had Baylor missing a bowl entirely, while Bonagura placed the Bears in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl against SEC foe Missouri.
That gap matters. Missing a bowl would clearly be a failed season for Baylor, and it would almost certainly mean Dave Aranda’s run in Waco is over. A Liberty Bowl trip, though, is a much murkier case.
Historically, Big 12 teams in that game have usually arrived with six to eight wins. That’s the range Baylor would be staring at if Bonagura’s projection comes true, but not all win totals would carry the same weight.
Eight wins would read as a major success and, in this view, enough to keep Aranda and his staff in place for another year. Six or seven wins?
That’s where the temperature rises fast, and Doug McNamee would be looking through the coaching market for a possible Aranda replacement.
The record alone would not tell the whole story either. The way Baylor gets there would matter just as much.
Another loss to TCU would sting, especially if it became the sixth defeat in seven years in that matchup. A heavy home loss to Texas Tech, like the kind Baylor has already taken from the Red Raiders at McLane Stadium, would also leave fans frustrated.
For Baylor to make real progress, the team would need to look solid week after week, show clear growth from younger players, and avoid the kind of slide that has hit some of its breakout stars in past seasons. The Bears would need to leave people believing better days are coming.
That’s the real standard here. If Aranda is going to be the head coach in 2027, Baylor needs to head into that offseason with some actual hope.
A Liberty Bowl appearance alone would not do that. Seven wins and a 7-5 finish would not be enough to get the fan base excited, and it would be hard to label that kind of season a success.
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Griffin will take part in the pregame coin toss alongside Cam Newton, Auburns honorary captain, in an event that also ties into the Kickoff for a Cause initiative supporting childhood cancer research. For Baylor, it adds a little extra weight and visibility to a high-profile neutral-site stage, with one of the schools most recognizable players helping set the tone before the first snap. [Read more 🡒]