Dave Aranda is walking into 2026 with very little margin for error, and Baylor’s decision to bring him back has already been tested by everything that followed.
When president Linda Livingstone announced on Nov. 21 that Aranda would return for the 2026 season, Baylor was sitting at 5-5, just one day after former athletic director Mack Rhoades resigned from the university. The Bears would go on to finish 5-7, giving them a third losing season in the last four years. Livingstone still said it was in the school’s best interest to keep Aranda in place, pointing to roster retention, the ability to hold onto a decorated recruiting class, and the chance to invest more into the football program.
That plan did not survive contact with reality. Baylor ended up losing 59 players to the transfer portal and saw the top names in its 2026 recruiting class leave as well. Four-stars Jamarion Carlton, Jordan Clay, and Jamarion Vincent all flipped to other programs.
So now the question is not whether Aranda got another year. It’s what he does with it.
Baylor alum and CBS Sports national reporter Shehan Jeyarajah sees 2026 as a true proving ground for Aranda, and he doesn’t believe the standard is a specific win total. It’s bigger than that.
"Not only is this Aranda’s last chance, most would argue that he was very fortunate to get this one," Jeyarajah told Baylor Bears on SI. "If not for an athletic director change in 2025, Baylor likely would have already made a coaching change.
"There isn’t a magic number that Baylor needs to hit. Instead, it will be defined by the simple question of momentum.
Can Baylor prove that the program is heading in the right direction? And furthermore, can the Bears show reasons for optimism heading into 2027 and beyond?
It’s a tough ask."
Aranda clearly responded to the pressure by making changes. After another rough year against the run - Baylor ranked 122nd nationally - and seven losses, he moved to bring in Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman and hand over playcalling duties. That was a notable shift, especially because it was Aranda who had been calling the shots while Matt Powledge served as defensive coordinator.
Jeyarajah believes the hire says plenty about how Aranda is viewed around the sport.
"Klanderman was beyond what I thought Baylor was capable of landing heading into a potential lame duck season," Jeyarajah said. "The former Kansas State defensive coordinator has consistently put together elite results and developed at a high level.
"It says a tremendous amount about how Aranda is viewed in the industry that he landed Klanderman and Jake Spavital as coordinator hires while so firmly on the hot seat. It certainly would have been nice for a few more Kansas State players to follow, but Klanderman’s focus on the defense should help lead a more structured, consistent group. "
Baylor did get some help from the Kansas State pipeline. Linebacker Austin Romaine was the biggest name available in the portal, but he ended up at Texas Tech instead of following Klanderman. Even so, the Bears added Ryan Davis, Jayden Rowe, Daniel Cobbs, and Colby McCalister from Kansas State, and those players are expected to matter.
The first real test comes quickly. Baylor opens against Auburn for the second straight year on Sept. 5 in Atlanta, and that game should tell fans plenty about what this team actually is.
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