The Big 12’s race is tightening with three weeks left, and the league’s picture is getting clearer in some places and messier in others. Utah keeps rolling, Texas Tech still sits in the driver’s seat among the one-loss teams, and Oklahoma State just injected a fresh dose of chaos into the conversation.
Utah’s win over BYU in the Holy War kept the Utes unbeaten and put them on a glide path to their first Big 12 championship game in Arlington. It also lines up with a bit of conference history: this will be the last Big 12 championship game before the expanded playoff to 24 teams wipes it out next season.
Texas Tech remains the only team in the league with one conference loss, but Saturday’s matchup with Oklahoma State looms large. That game will determine whether the Red Raiders stay in second place or whether the Cowboys can stir up a remarkable amount of trouble for the second title-game spot.
One of the biggest individual risers is Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker, and the performance he just put together against Kansas State is the kind that gets people talking fast. He threw for more than 300 yards and became the first player in Big 12 history - and just the second in FBS over the last 30 years - to throw at least four touchdown passes with at least one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown in the same game. The only other player to do it was Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch.
The NFL buzz around Mestemaker is already loud, and the source of that buzz was in the building for the Kansas State game. He’s a redshirt sophomore, so he still has time to decide what comes next, but the momentum is obvious.
As the reporting put it, “enjoy watching him play in the Big 12 while you can. Because I don’t think he’s going to be in an OSU uniform in 2027.”
Baylor has become one of the league’s more surprising upward swings since Dave Aranda was fired and defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman took over as interim head coach. The Bears have won two straight, locked up a bowl berth and, as Pete Mundo pointed out, still have a path to the Big 12 championship game.
That turnaround is not what most people expected when Aranda was dismissed. Instead of folding, Baylor has stayed alive and competitive, which changes the feel of the coaching search entirely. Klanderman’s run has made the next step for the program look either easier or more complicated, depending on how you view it.
There’s also a broader sign of strength for the conference as a whole. When the College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday, the Big 12 had six teams in the Top 25.
Only Utah would make the playoff if it started today, but the depth is hard to ignore. The first five ranked Big 12 teams - Utah, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston and Arizona - all have two or fewer league losses.
Oklahoma State at No. 25 was the surprise, and it marked the program’s first Top 25 CFP ranking in nearly three years.
Not everyone is moving in the right direction. TCU’s loss to Arizona on Friday was ugly enough that it points toward changes ahead, whether that means assistants, transfers or more.
The Horned Frogs were expected to be a dark horse Big 12 contender back in August, but that idea looks a long way off now. The loss was described as one of the most absurd ways to lose a game, and with Sonny Dykes already under heavy pressure, it felt like the kind of result that can drag down both a season and a staff.
Colorado is in a similarly rough spot. The Buffaloes are one of the three teams in the conference with just one league win, and there’s little reason to think the offseason won’t bring more change.
But that’s been part of the pattern under Deion Sanders, who has already overhauled the staff and roster again this year by bringing in offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, defensive coordinator Chris Marve and a new wave of players. Julian Lewis was committed as the starting quarterback, but the offense has not come together.
The defense, especially the defensive line, has held up. The offense has not.
It’s a far cry from two years ago, when Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter were powering Colorado through Big 12 defenses. Right now, the program feels unsettled, and the final three games are set up to be a grind.
Then there are Kansas and Kansas State, the other two one-win teams in the league. The Sunflower State rivalry has turned into a rough watch, with the two programs combining for just seven wins this season.
Kansas State got blown out by Oklahoma State and gave up more points to the Cowboys than it ever has in Manhattan. Kansas, meanwhile, keeps flashing talent on paper without turning it into enough on-field production, and the quarterback situation remains far from ideal.
Colin Klein should get some patience at Kansas State because this is his first season and he’s a program legend. Lance Leipold’s situation at Kansas is less settled, even with a contract that carries a significant buyout.
In Other News...
Baylors Upset Chances At BYU Come Down To One Lingering Problem
Baylor heads into its first ranked matchup of the season with three regular-season games left, and the timing could hardly be more important. Interim head coach Joe Klanderman and tight end coach Jarrett Anderson have both pointed to the same theme in recent days: the Bears need cleaner offensive execution if they want to give themselves a real shot against No. 10 BYU, especially when drives reach the red zone or when space opens up in the field.
The challenge is bigger than just finishing chances, though. Baylor has to avoid the kind of slow starts and self-inflicted penalties that can tilt a game before it settles in, and the emphasis this week has been on playing with energy while keeping things under control. Against a ranked opponent that can punish mistakes quickly, the Bears know the margin for error is thin, and one lingering issue could decide whether they can turn this into a true upset opportunity. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Faces A Huge Big 12 Test With Its Offense Under Pressure
Baylor heads to Provo on Nov. 14 for a Big 12 game that carries real weight in the conference race, with both teams sitting tied in the standings and the stakes rising for anyone still thinking about a championship path. BYU enters as a 7.5-point favorite at LaVell Edwards Stadium, but the Bears have enough of their own to make this more than a road trip, especially with interim coach Joe Klanderman trying to keep the group steady and quarterback DJ Lagway at the center of it all.
BYUs side of the matchup has its own pressure points, starting with quarterback Bear Bachmeier and the uncertainty around running back LJ Martins health. For Baylor, the opening is obvious: if the Bears can make the Cougars uncomfortable and keep the game from turning into a clean BYU script, they can turn a tough road spot into a meaningful conference statement. [Read more 🡒]
Gavin Freeman Is Chasing Something Baylor Receivers Rarely Reach
Gavin Freemans first season at Baylor has already put him in rare company, and now it has earned him a place among the sports most notable walk-on success stories. Freeman was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Burlsworth Trophy, an award that honors players who began their careers without a scholarship and has become a marker of persistence as much as production. He was selected from a field of 65 nominees, a reminder of how far his rise has come in a short time.
For Baylor, Freemans emergence is the kind of development that can reshape a receiver room. He has been among the national leaders in receptions and receiving yards in his debut season with the Bears, a level of production that does not come around often for a player whose path started as a walk-on. The award race is still moving forward, but Freeman has already put himself in position to chase something Baylor receivers rarely reach. [Read more 🡒]