DJ Lagway doesn’t get a soft landing in his first start, and that matters for Baylor’s season outlook.
The opener against Auburn comes in Atlanta, Ga., not on Baylor’s home field, but it won’t be a true road game for Auburn either. Still, there’s nothing easy about the assignment. For Lagway, it’s the kind of first test that can reveal a lot fast: either he settles in and helps set the tone, or the learning curve shows up immediately.
That uncertainty is exactly why Baylor’s win total has become such a debate. The Bears are being sized up at 6.5 wins, and Danny Kanell of the Cover3 podcast came down on the under while leaving room to be proven wrong.
“I've got - I need to get a little bit balanced here, so I need to underplay,” Kanell said. “I've seen the story happen way too many times where we see a five-star coming out of high school and he's projected to be all everything and then falls well short of it and then gets a second opportunity and everybody gets all excited and then all of a sudden you realize maybe just a five star ranking was not correct because maybe that player just struggles to play the sport of football. I hate saying that because it feels kind of mean.
“Give me Baylor under 6.5 wins for the season.. I know Jake Spavital's been there and he's the quarterback whisperer.
But he's going to be asked to throw the football quite a bit and he's got to figure out the turnover situation. I didn't love some of the things he was saying on the way out from Florida”
That’s the heart of the bet with Baylor this year. Until the games start, the whole thing is built on projection, and Lagway is the center of it.
If he hits quickly, Baylor has the kind of quarterback play that can push the Bears past 6.5 wins and into bowl territory. If the hype outpaces the production, the under starts looking a lot more attractive.
For now, the opener against Auburn is the clearest measuring stick. It’s game one, and it’s not forgiving.
In Other News...
Dave Aranda Says Baylor Feels Different Entering A Pivotal 2026
Baylors first summer practice at McLane Stadium brought more than just the usual offseason buzz, with Dave Aranda and the teams leaders using the moment to talk about a program that feels, in their view, a little more settled and a lot more intentional. Aranda pointed to the importance of transparency and steady leadership, while the Bears also emphasized a more aggressive approach in the transfer portal under athletic director Doug McNamee, a shift that has become part of the backdrop as the program looks ahead.
The tone around the team seemed to reflect that change. Players described a better mental approach and stronger relationships inside the locker room, signs that the Bears believe their culture is trending the right way before a pivotal 2026. For Aranda, the message was less about hype than about habits, with the emphasis on building something that lasts and making sure the pieces added this offseason fit the standard the program wants to carry forward. [Read more 🡒]