Three games into the season, Baylor’s path the rest of the way is starting to take shape, and the picture is more encouraging than overwhelming. The Bears look capable of stacking wins, but this isn’t being framed as a march to the College Football Playoff.
There are still losses ahead. There are also enough winnable spots on the schedule to keep this season moving in a positive direction.
Colorado is up next, and the expectation is that Baylor handles it. The Buffaloes were just hammered by Northwestern 41-7, and Coach Sanders is set to spend the week getting his team ready for Baylor.
Even so, the Bears are projected to be too much, especially with Jaden Porter, DJ Lagway, and others expected back after missing time because of injury. Prediction: Baylor Wins
The next trip, before the bye week, sends Baylor to Tempe to face Arizona State. This is the game where Baylor is expected to find its rhythm.
The forecast here is built around the Bears hitting a few explosive plays, taking the lead in a tough road environment, and keeping control the rest of the way. Prediction: Baylor Wins
After the bye, the schedule turns to TCU, and that’s where the first setback is projected. Both teams will be coming off a bye, but TCU has a habit of looking like a national championship contender when Baylor is on the other sideline.
Baylor is expected to ride in on momentum, but the edge goes to the Horned Frogs. Prediction: TCU Wins
That loss would send Baylor back home to Waco, where the response is expected to be immediate. The matchup is not viewed as one that should give the Bears major trouble.
The projected script has Baylor coming out fast, grabbing control early, and never letting it slip. Prediction: Baylor Wins
UCF is next, and the outlook there is straightforward: Baylor is expected to take advantage of a team that was supposed to be better than it has been so far. The Bears are picked to start another winning streak. Prediction: Baylor Wins
Iowa State figures to be the toughest test in that stretch. The Cyclones are expected to bring more resistance than any opponent Baylor has seen this season, and the game is projected to be tight deep into the fourth quarter.
A pick-6 or a big special teams return could be part of the danger, but Baylor is still picked to squeeze out the win. Prediction: Baylor Wins
Then comes what is described as the toughest section of the schedule, beginning with BYU. The Cougars are viewed as one of the Big 12’s best teams, and this is not treated like a favorable matchup for Baylor.
The game is expected to be competitive and entertaining, but the Bears are predicted to come up short. Prediction: BYU Wins
Baylor’s final home game brings Texas Tech to Waco, and that one is also projected to go against the Bears. Texas Tech is described as arguably the most complete team in the Big 12, and while home field should help Baylor stay in it, the edge still goes to the Red Raiders.
The Bears are expected to battle as long as they can before Texas Tech pulls away. Prediction: Texas Tech Wins
The regular season ends at Houston in what could swing the entire year one way or the other. Houston is expected to be fighting for both a playoff bid and a Big 12 title, which makes this a difficult finish on paper.
Still, Baylor is projected to leave with a win and limp into bowl season. Prediction: Baylor Wins
The overall forecast has Baylor reaching bowl eligibility but missing the playoff. After going 5-7 in 2025, finishing above .500 again would be a welcome step.
The bigger question hanging over the end of the year is whether Head Coach Dave Aranda will still be in charge next season. That’s a conversation for another time.
In Other News...
Dave Aranda Faces A Costly Colorado Problem In Baylor's Opener
Dave Aranda spent part of Baylors buildup to the opener zeroing in on the Colorado offense, and it was easy to see why. The Buffaloes scheme under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion brings a lot to sort out, from multiple backfield looks to a run game that can force a defense to stay honest before the ball goes over the top. For Baylor, the challenge is not just lining up correctly, but doing it quickly enough to avoid getting stressed by Colorados tempo and variety.
Aranda pointed to the ways Colorados Go-Go offense can manufacture one-on-one matchups and turn them into big plays, which is exactly the kind of problem that can snowball early in a season. Baylor has to be sharp against both the run and the deep ball, because letting either part of the offense settle in can open the door to a long night. In an opener, those are the kinds of schematic issues that can decide whether a favorite controls the game or spends four quarters chasing answers. [Read more 🡒]
Tyquan Thornton Gave Baylor Fans A Reason To Feel Proud Again
Several former Baylor football players turned in noticeable NFL performances over the weekend, giving Bears fans a little extra reason to keep an eye on Sundays. Tyquan Thornton was the headliner, catching four passes for 86 yards for the Kansas City Chiefs and helping set up a key overtime moment with a 30-yard grab that stood out in a tight game.
The Baylor connection did not stop there. Jalen Pitre chipped in four tackles for the Houston Texans, Terrel Bernard added five tackles and a pass breakup for the Buffalo Bills, Josh Cameron gave his team a boost as a punt returner, and James Lynch finished with seven tackles for the Chicago Bears. Even in mixed results across the league, the collection of steady outings offered a reminder that Baylors pipeline to the pros still has some life in it. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Opens Big 12 Play With A Game Day Push Fans Will Feel
Baylor heads into Big 12 play with a 2-0 start and a familiar challenge for early-season football in Texas: making McLane Stadium a better place to spend a Saturday when the kickoff clock and the heat are both working against you. The university has been talking openly about ways to improve the fan experience around home games, a push that matters even more now as conference play begins and the atmosphere around the stadium takes on added weight.
There is also a broader fall feel around campus, with Baylor keeping tabs on volleyball, soccer and the rest of its sports calendar while the football team settles into league action. One of the more personal notes the school highlighted was a fan engagement story centered on Captain Sherwin Anderson and his family at a recent game, a reminder that the programs effort to connect with supporters is about more than the action on the field. [Read more 🡒]