Baylor’s season is going to be judged in flashes, not in broad strokes. After a 5-7 year, the Bears don’t have the luxury of easing into anything. They need results, and they need them fast.
That’s why a handful of games stand out as the ones that will shape everything that follows. Some are about proving the opener wasn’t a fluke.
Others are about surviving the first real road test. One is about a rivalry that has tilted the wrong way for too long.
And one could tell the story of whether Baylor is good enough to climb back into the upper tier of the Big 12.
The first major swing comes right away against Auburn. Baylor opens with an SEC opponent, and there’s no hiding from the challenge.
Auburn isn’t Alabama, but it’s still a strong team and a serious test to start the year. Last season, the Bears dropped this matchup by two scores on opening weekend, so there’s already a little unfinished business here.
That game also brings the debut of quarterback DJ Lagway, who is expected to be a major part of Baylor’s offense. With so much turnover on that side of the ball, Lagway’s first snaps in green and yellow will draw plenty of attention. An opening loss wouldn’t end the season, but it would put a much lower ceiling on what Baylor can chase in 2026.
If the Bears handle the first stretch, the next pressure point arrives on the road against Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State. Baylor could be 4-0 by then, riding momentum into its first road game and its last one before the bye week.
But Arizona State has been strong under Dillingham, and the desert is a difficult place to win. Pulling that one out would say a lot.
Dropping it could send Baylor into its biggest rivalry game on the back foot.
That rivalry game is TCU, and it belongs on this list every year. Baylor has beaten the Horned Frogs only once since 2020, and that has to change if the Bears want to get where they’re trying to go. Coming off a bye, this is the kind of spot where a win would feel especially meaningful for a program that has struggled in the biggest Big 12 moments.
Then there’s Texas Tech, Baylor’s lone matchup against a team that reached the playoff a season ago. That game comes the last Saturday before Thanksgiving, and the Red Raiders are expected to be one of the conference’s best teams after reloading this offseason.
By that point, Baylor’s record could make the stakes even sharper, especially for Dave Aranda, who is fighting for his job. If the Bears can catch Texas Tech at the right time and spring the upset, it would do more than dent the Red Raiders’ playoff hopes.
It would also be the clearest sign yet that Baylor has actually moved up a level.
In Other News...
Baylor May Have Found The Weapon Its Offense Desperately Needed
Baylor is heading into 2026 with a clear need to rediscover some juice on offense after a disappointing 2025, and the Bears are hoping a healthy Louis Brown IV can help provide it. The San Diego State transfer is expected to be part of the plan around Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, giving Dave Aranda and Jake Spavital a new receiving piece to work with as fall camp continues.
Browns path to this point has not been straightforward, since he missed most of last season after an injury last spring, but his return has already caught the staffs attention. Spavital has been encouraged by what he has seen from Brown in camp, especially around the ball in contested situations, and Baylor could use that kind of reliable presence if it wants this offense to look more dangerous than it did a year ago. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor's New-Look Offense Puts Jake Spavital In The Spotlight
Baylors offense is in the middle of a reset after losing Josh Cameron and Michael Trigg, and the early signs point to a unit built less around replacing those exact roles and more around widening the menu. The Bears have added pieces through the transfer portal, including Gavin Freeman, and offensive coordinator Jake Spavital has been talking up the versatility of the receivers now in the room.
That flexibility matters because Baylor also wants to lean into what DJ Lagway can do as a mobile quarterback, giving Spavital room to build packages that make the offense harder to read. The idea is not just to patch holes left by departures, but to create something more unpredictable, with different players capable of filling multiple spots depending on the look and the moment. [Read more 🡒]
DJ Lagway Faces Early Pressure Baylor Fans Cant Ignore
DJ Lagway is already drawing national attention before Baylor takes the field, with the former five-star recruit landing on the Maxwell Award watch list as one of the sports top all-around names to know. Inside the Bears building, though, the focus is less on accolades and more on the day-to-day work of getting a talented quarterback comfortable in a new setting, especially as he starts building chemistry with a fresh group of pass catchers.
Offensive coordinator Jake Spavital has made it clear he believes in Lagways ability, and the task now is turning that promise into steady production once the games count. Baylors season opener against Auburn will offer the first real test of how quickly Lagway can settle in, process the offense and command a passing game that is still taking shape around him. [Read more 🡒]