Baylor’s path to the Big 12 title may come down to how it handles one brutal three-week stretch.
The Bears close the regular season with trips to BYU on Nov. 14 and Houston on Nov. 28, with Texas Tech coming to Waco on Nov. 21. ESPN’s latest Football Power Index has Baylor sixth in the Big 12, but that final run gives Dave Aranda’s team a direct shot to beat that number - or confirm it.
The biggest swing factor is DJ Lagway. The former five-star quarterback transferred from Florida after throwing for 2,264 yards, 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2025, and Baylor’s ceiling rises and falls with how well he manages that profile.
The arm talent is obvious. The turnovers are the problem.
If Lagway is hitting explosives without handing back possessions, the Bears have a chance to hang with the league’s best. If not, November gets ugly fast.
That issue is especially sharp against Texas Tech and Houston, both of which bring proven quarterbacks to the table. Will Hammond is projected to start for the Red Raiders after passing for 680 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions while adding 299 rushing yards and five scores in limited 2025 action.
Houston’s Conner Weigman is even more established, coming off a season in which he accounted for 36 touchdowns. He threw 25 touchdown passes and ran for 11 more, tying for the Big 12 lead in total touchdowns.
That means Baylor can’t afford to live in shootout mode. Third-down efficiency, red-zone finishing and ball security matter more than raw passing totals in a stretch like this.
The other glaring issue is on the ground, where Baylor was gashed in 2025. The Bears allowed 197.2 rushing yards per game and 30 rushing touchdowns, and that can’t carry over into a finish against three physical opponents.
BYU’s LJ Martin is the first headache. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year ran for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry last season.
If he keeps the Cougars on schedule, Baylor won’t get many chances to let Lagway settle in.
Houston and Texas Tech can hit Baylor with backfield depth, too. Houston added Makhi Hughes after he posted back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons at Tulane before spending 2025 at Oregon. Texas Tech has Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams, who combined for 868 rushing yards and six touchdowns while also adding 388 receiving yards last season.
Baylor’s answer has to come from a rebuilt defensive front. Indiana transfer Hosea Wheeler arrives with 30 career starts and 139 tackles, while Coastal Carolina transfer Jordan Mack brings length and pass-rushing ability to the line. Those pieces need to help Baylor do something it couldn’t do often enough a year ago: slow down the run and force opponents into longer, messier drives.
The Bears can help themselves on offense by leaning on Dawson Pendergrass. He missed the 2025 season with a foot injury, but he’s back after producing 1,009 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry across his first two college seasons. If Pendergrass is productive, Baylor can shorten games and keep Martin, Weigman and Hammond on the sideline.
And Baylor will need its own difference-makers to show up in the biggest moments. Houston receiver Amare Thomas caught 12 touchdowns and finished with 966 receiving yards last season.
Texas Tech has J’Koby Williams, who added 242 kickoff-return yards and a touchdown to his work from scrimmage. The Red Raiders also bring preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year A.J.
Holmes Jr., whose interior pressure can create sacks, turnovers and short fields.
Baylor has some answers of its own. Colorado transfer Dre’lon Miller totaled 309 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in 2025 while splitting time at receiver and running back, giving offensive coordinator Jake Spavital another versatile weapon to work with around Lagway and Pendergrass.
The margin is thin, and the Bears know it. One missed tackle, one busted coverage or one bad special-teams snap can flip a game in a hurry. Forcing BYU, Texas Tech and Houston to march the field play after play would give Baylor a better chance to draw penalties, generate sacks and steal possessions.
The formula is pretty clear. Baylor doesn’t need to become the Big 12’s most talented team overnight. It needs Lagway to take care of the ball, the new-look front to solve a major run-defense problem and the playmakers to deliver in the biggest spots.
If that happens, the Bears’ season-ending gauntlet can become a route to Arlington instead of the thing that knocks them out.
In Other News...
Two Baylor Standouts Just Gave Bears Fans Another Reason To Celebrate
Baylor baseball got another dose of draft-day recognition when Lucas Davenport and Tyce Armstrong heard their names called in the 2026 Major League Baseball Draft. Davenport, a starting pitcher throughout his Baylor career, and Armstrong, one of the most productive bats in the programs recent history, both added pro baseball milestones to resumes that already made them fixtures in Waco.
The selections also underscored just how far both players had climbed in their time with the Bears. Davenports work on the mound gave Baylor a dependable arm, while Armstrong left campus with the schools single-season home run record after a huge year at the plate. For a program that prides itself on developing talent, seeing two standouts reach the draft is the kind of payoff that keeps the momentum rolling. [Read more 🡒]
Why Baylor's Secondary May Hinge On This Veteran Addition
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McCalisters recovery has become one of the more quietly important storylines for a defense that could use stability and communication on the back end. If he returns to form, Baylor gets more than just another transfer addition. It gets a player who already knows the language, the responsibilities and the expectations, and that kind of head start can matter a lot when a secondary is trying to find its footing. [Read more 🡒]
ESPNs New Baylor Projection Feels Safe And Frustrating For Bears Fans
ESPNs updated Football Power Index landed on June 30 with a pretty familiar kind of Baylor outlook: respectable, bowl-adjacent and just vague enough to leave fans wanting more. The Bears check in 37th nationally with a 6.5 rating, good for sixth in the Big 12, and the projection pegs them at 6.6-5.5 with a 68.8% shot at reaching bowl eligibility.
The frustrating part is how crowded the middle of the league looks around them, with Baylor sitting only a sliver behind Houston and barely ahead of TCU in the model. Texas Tech is the clear conference favorite in ESPNs eyes, and that only sharpens the sense that Baylor is being slotted into the same old range of competitive but not quite threatening, unless something changes in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]