Baylor enters the bye week riding a four-game winning streak, and the most recent win looked like the most complete performance the Bears have put together all season. That’s enough to invite a little speculation about what the rest of the schedule might hold, especially with a stretch ahead that could shape everything from bowl positioning to the bigger picture around the program.
One of the clearest signs from Baylor’s latest outing was the way the ground game kept producing answers. Ryelan Morris ripped off a 63-yard run, Caden Knighten broke loose for a 75-yard run, and DJ Lagway added an 11-yard rush of his own. That kind of burst gives Baylor a different look every time it touches the ball at tailback, and the rotation of fresh legs creates problems for defenses because each runner brings something a little different.
There’s also a more old-school case to be made. Dawson Pendergrass, on his own, would fit the classic model of one back carrying the load and wearing teams down over four quarters. Baylor has not gone that route, though, and the current setup has its own appeal.
The real-world version sits somewhere in between. Baylor piled up 244 rushing yards against ASU, and the offensive line gave Lagway protection while opening lanes for every tailback throughout the game. If ASU was the toughest opponent Baylor will face for the next month or so, then similar production does not sound far-fetched in the weeks ahead.
The larger question is whether anyone can actually slow the Bears down. Texas Tech had a hard time putting Houston away, even with Houston needing to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit against UCF.
BYU had to grind out a win over TCU, and BYU still will not have been truly tested until it plays Notre Dame. Baylor has not shown much weakness from a talent standpoint this season, which is why the idea of a playoff path being right there has entered the conversation.
Still, there are reasons to pump the brakes. Baylor’s mobile quarterback has not had a designed run play since returning from injury, and he has looked more like a statue waiting in the pocket than a threat moving around.
The offensive line, meanwhile, only sprung two long running plays against what was described as a lackluster ASU defense. That is not exactly the kind of formula that screams unstoppable.
The schedule also refuses to get easy. Baylor’s final three games - BYU, Houston, and Texas Tech - are all expected to be difficult, and depending on how the rest of the season plays out, all four of those teams could be in the mix for playoff spots.
That kind of finish changes the conversation around Coach Aranda, too. A winning season, a bowl game, and even the possibility of a playoff berth would put Baylor in a win-now place, especially with a defense that has dominated opponents, a rotating group of explosive backs, one of the best wide receivers in the country, and the best punter in the country. The hot seat has cooled substantially from where it sat at the start of the season.
But the other side of that coin is still there. Baylor is supposed to handle FCS schools and G6 schools, and Colorado’s season has its own issues.
ASU also did not play very well. Aranda still took the blame for the Auburn game with a high-risk, high-reward decision, and historically those calls have not gone especially well for him.
The hot seat is still hot.
At the same time, his contract runs through 2029, the players seem to like playing for him, and the combination of his defensive mind with Joe Klanderman’s has produced a defense that is much improved from last year. Even so, a losing season could spell disaster for Aranda at Baylor.
As for the next step, Baylor’s latest demolition of ASU makes it easy to think the Bears won’t lose again for a while. TCU has had a rougher season than expected, but the roster still has plenty of talent. Baylor should not lose that game, and the expectation is that it should look a lot like the ASU result.
Of course, the contrarian case is that Baylor will lose anyway. A loss to TCU would wipe out any chance of being ranked anytime soon, and with the way both teams have played, there would be no excuse for Baylor to drop that game. The source of that pessimism is simple enough: after Ryelan Morris’ 63-yard touchdown run, Baylor had just gone three-and-out on the previous drive after giving up the lead to the Sun Devils on a field goal.
For now, though, that prediction is just a hunch. The game has not been played yet, there are no official odds, and there is still time before Baylor and TCU actually meet.
In Other News...
Baylor Vs TCU Just Got A Bigger Stage Than Fans Expected
Baylors midseason meeting with TCU just picked up a little more shine. The Big 12 announced that the rivalry game in Waco will kick off at 6 p.m. CT in Week 7 and air on FS1, giving the Bears a prime-night backdrop for a matchup that already carries plenty of weight in conference play. Baylor enters at 4-1, and the program also plans to lean into the occasion with blackout uniforms for the occasion.
The timing only adds to the intrigue for a series that has delivered its share of memorable moments over the years. With both the current seasons momentum and the history between the two programs in play, this one was already going to matter inside the league race. Now it will do so under the lights, with a little more attention than fans may have expected when the schedule first came out. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Arizona State Breakout Just Turned Into Something Bigger
DJ Lagway and Ryelan Morris turned Baylors trip to Arizona State into a showcase, and the Big 12 took notice. The junior quarterback and freshman running back were both honored for Week 5 after helping the Bears roll to a 55-19 win, with Lagway earning Offensive Player of the Week and Morris taking home Freshman of the Week.
Lagway piled up 306 passing yards and accounted for five total touchdowns, giving Baylor the kind of efficient, explosive night it has been chasing. Morris added another layer to the rout with 84 rushing yards and the first touchdown of his career, a strong follow-up that gives the Bears more reason to feel good about their young backfield as the season settles in. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Just Sent A Strong Message About What This Team Can Be
Baylors latest result did more than add another win to the ledger. It gave a clearer picture of what this group can look like when it puts together a complete performance, and that matters in a Big 12 race where every week seems to reshape the conversation. The Bears decisive victory over Arizona State stood out in a weekend that also featured TCU pushing BYU to the wire and Pittsburgh beating Virginia Tech despite losing starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL.
The broader ripple effect is easy to see from here, too. BYU is headed to UCF soon and arrives ranked No. 8 in the AP poll after surviving that tight game against TCU, while Pittsburghs rise into the AP Top 25 shows how quickly the national picture can shift. Baylors performance, though, may have been the most convincing reminder that this team still has a higher ceiling than its record sometimes suggests, and the next few weeks will go a long way toward proving whether that message holds up. [Read more 🡒]