Baylor’s bowl hopes are already getting measured by numbers that usually tell the whole story.
Scotty Swingler of Bear Illustrated pointed to two stats that have separated Baylor’s bowl teams from its stay-home seasons since 2011: yards per run and third-down conversion rate. Through three games this year, both categories are flashing warning signs.
The run game has not been nearly strong enough. Baylor is averaging 3.75 yards per carry through its first three games, a number that looks even thinner when you remember the Bears have already faced PVA&M and LA Tech.
The backs have not been the issue in effort. Dawson Pendergrass keeps driving forward, Caden Knighten still brings the same burst and elusiveness he showed as a freshman, and true freshman Ryelan Morris showed real juice against LA Tech when he ripped off a 33-yard run at the end of the game to push Baylor from midfield to the doorstep of the goal line after a 3rd-and-16.
Even so, the overall number remains below where Baylor usually needs to be. Against LA Tech, the Bears averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and without Morris’ final 33-yard run, that drops to 3.07.
Since 2010, Baylor has reached a bowl game when it has averaged higher than 4.19 yards per carry. Seasons below 4.15 have ended with the Bears home in December.
Third down has been another problem. Baylor has converted 40.8% of its third downs so far, which sits in the middle of the range Swingler identified, but not in the safe zone.
Baylor bowl teams since 2010 have hit 41.2% or better on third down, while the seasons that missed bowl eligibility finished at 37.6% or lower. The Bears’ only loss, to Auburn, included a rough 7-for-22 showing on third down.
Coach Aranda may be willing to roll the dice on fourth down, but the offense can’t keep living like the next snap is already a fourth-down decision. The goal has to be winning the down in front of them, not just surviving long enough to keep the drive barely alive.
There is still time to change the trend. Baylor has games left to smooth out the ground game and lift both numbers.
The return of DJ Lagway this week should help by giving the defense another runner to worry about on every play. Nate Bennett has been steady in his two starts, but he does not bring the same running threat Lagway is expected to provide.
In Other News...
Baylors QB Decision Carries A Bigger Risk Than Just Colorado
Dave Arandas quarterback choice for Baylors upcoming Big 12 matchup with Colorado is as much about the long view as the next snap. Nate Bennett gets the start because DJ Lagway is still working his way back from injury, and Aranda has made it clear the staff is trying to balance urgency with caution. Lagway is improving, but Baylor is also staring at a conference schedule that leaves little margin for error, so the decision to lean on the healthier option fits the bigger picture.
Bennett has earned some trust with the way he has filled in lately, which gives the Bears a steadier bridge while Lagway continues his recovery. The wrinkle for Baylor is obvious enough: this is not just about surviving one game against Colorado, but about whether the team can keep enough flexibility to handle what comes next. If Lagway is close, the Bears still have a potentially important decision looming, and Aranda does not sound like he is ready to rush it. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Is Catching A Colorado Team Under Serious Pressure
Colorado is heading into its Big 12 opener against Baylor with plenty of off-field noise still hanging over the program after Deion Sanders dismissed several players for what he described as a pattern of conduct detrimental to the team. It is the kind of reset that forces a locker room to refocus quickly, and safety Randon Fontenette spent time in media availability stressing that the Buffaloes attention has to stay on winning and on maintaining the standards Sanders has set.
For Baylor, the timing adds another layer to a conference opener that already carried some weight. The Bears are catching a Colorado team trying to steady itself in the middle of sudden roster turnover, and those situations often reveal whether a program can settle in fast or keep slipping into distraction. However Colorado responds, it will be doing so with the pressure of a fresh Big 12 start and a thinner margin for error than it had a week ago. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Opens Big 12 Play With Pressure Already Building Against Colorado
Baylor opens Big 12 play with a familiar opponent and a little extra edge, hosting Colorado after an overtime loss to the Buffaloes not long ago. The Bears enter conference play with DJ Lagway expected to start, even as he works back from injury recovery, which gives this matchup an early-season urgency that goes beyond the league standings.
For Baylor, the formula is fairly clear: take advantage of Colorados defensive weaknesses, keep Lagway upright with better pass protection and avoid the kinds of discipline issues that can swing a close game. Those are the details that often decide September games, and they carry even more weight here with the opener bringing both a rematch feel and an immediate test of how far Baylor has come since the last meeting. [Read more 🡒]