The Big 12’s 16-team race is wide open enough that a few programs can beat the public’s read on them, and the five most obvious candidates all come with a clear path to outkicking their preseason projections.
Oklahoma State is the boldest pick in the group. The Cowboys are coming off a 1-11 season, so the bar is low, but there’s real buzz that Eric Morris has upgraded the talent level fast enough to make them more than a cleanup job.
A leap all the way into the Big 12 title game would take a lot falling into place, yet the offense has the kind of pieces that can change a season in a hurry. Drew Mestemaker leads a set of offensive triplets that could be among the best in college football.
If Oklahoma State is going to clear the realistic 7-5 expectation, the defense has to take a huge step forward after being one of the worst units in college football in 2025.
UCF also has a chance to surprise because the biggest problem from last season may already be solved. The Knights finished 5-7 under Scott Frost in 2025, and the quarterback situation never really settled down enough to get them to a bowl.
This year looks different with James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III coming in to stabilize the offense. Add in several starters back from last year’s defense and a second season with coordinator Alex Grinch, and UCF suddenly looks like a team that can beat the .500-or-so expectations many have set for it.
Kansas State enters with more attention than usual after the coaching handoff from Chris Klieman to Collin Klein. That alone has lifted the ceiling in the eyes of plenty of observers.
The Wildcats were just an average team a season ago, though, so the real question is whether the defense can be rebuilt after losing nearly every starter and whether Avery Johnson can finally deliver on the massive hype around him. Klein’s presence matters here.
If anyone can unlock the fourth-year quarterback, it’s the former Kansas State star who helped recruit him before heading to Texas A&M and eventually making his way back to Manhattan.
Baylor is the kind of team that could either do just enough to quiet the noise or end up right back in the middle of it. Dave Aranda has been living on hot-seat watch for what feels like forever, and he was openly apologizing for last season during his time with the media at Big 12 Media Days.
The Bears went into the portal and landed former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway, and that move gives them a real shot at getting the offense moving in the right direction. Aranda also gave up defensive play-calling duties, which could free him up to manage the entire operation more effectively.
If the pieces click, Baylor has a path to being a real factor.
Iowa State rounds out the list with a different kind of case. The expectations are lower because Matt Campbell is out and Jimmy Rogers is in, and the roster has been reshaped with more than 50 transfers.
Even so, Rogers brought in a workable quarterback in Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor and added plenty of experience on defense through the portal. Enough Cyclones stayed in place from last season to give the program a foundation, and if Iowa State catches fire early, it has a chance to finish well above what most are projecting for 2026.
In Other News...
Baylor Is Bringing Back A Game Day Tradition Fans Remember
Baylor is dusting off one of its old game-day signatures, announcing the return of the Bear Bell for the 2026 football season. The tradition dates to 1972, back to the Grant Teaff era, and it is set to be part of the routine again when the Bears score touchdowns and when the team makes its way through Bear Walk at home games.
The bell has been redesigned with help from Sigma Chi and Baylor Student Activities, giving the program a refreshed version of something longtime fans will recognize right away. Its debut is scheduled for Sept. 12, 2026, against Prairie View A&M, adding a nostalgic touch to a season that will already have plenty of attention on it. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Is Suddenly In The Hunt For A Massive 5-Star Prize
Baylor has put itself squarely in the mix for one of the biggest prizes in the class of 2027, with 6-foot-11 center Lewis Uvwo setting up a run of official visits that includes the Bears. The highly regarded big man, ranked No. 7 nationally and No. 1 at his position by 247Sports, is drawing the kind of attention that comes with elite size and a well-defined skill set, especially on the defensive end where his rim protection and rebounding stand out.
Uvwo is expected in Waco on August 28, and Baylor will be competing with Kentucky, Providence and California for a chance to make its case over the next several weeks. Scott Drews reputation for developing NBA talent gives the Bears a real selling point in a recruitment like this, and the timing of these visits suggests Baylor has earned a legitimate place in what could become a serious battle. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Pressure-Filled Reset Puts New Faces At Center Of 2025
Dave Arandas seventh season in Waco comes with the kind of pressure that tends to sharpen every roster decision, and Baylors offseason turnover made the reset impossible to miss. With 32 players transferring out, the Bears are heading into 2025 with a very different look, one built around new faces and a fresh round of expectations as Aranda tries to get the program moving in the right direction again.
At the center of that transition is transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, whose arrival gives Baylor a clear focal point on offense, while freshman London Smith is already drawing attention as a possible breakout piece. The bigger story, though, is how quickly all of it comes together inside a locker room that has been asked to absorb change and still develop the kind of culture Aranda needs to survive the season with momentum. [Read more 🡒]