Baylor’s win over UCF did more than put another result in the books. It gave the oddsmakers something to chew on.
After the Bears rolled to a 41-9 victory in Joe Klanderman’s first game, FanDuel adjusted the conversation around Saturday’s Homecoming matchup with Iowa State in Waco, Texas. The spread for Nov. 7 is 50.5, and that number tells you plenty about how this one is being viewed.
The Bears are still carrying plenty of uncertainty, and the schedule isn’t doing them any favors. Iowa State is next, with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston still ahead after that. Baylor’s path to the Big 12 Championship is still technically there, but the margin for error is thin.
Still, the UCF game offered a reminder of what this offense can look like when it gets rolling. Baylor once sat at an average of 38 points per game, and after losses to TCU and Kansas dragged that number down to around 30, the 41-point outburst nudged things back in the right direction. It wasn’t enough to erase the uneven stretch, but it was enough to make the market take notice.
Iowa State comes in with some momentum of its own after beating a recently resurging Oklahoma State team by exploiting weaknesses in the Pokes’ defense. But Baylor’s defense is a different animal. The Bears have allowed only 15 points per game, and that kind of pressure can change everything - especially if the Cyclones don’t get clean pockets or open rushing lanes.
That’s where this matchup starts to tilt. Baylor’s front has been disruptive all year, and the secondary is no easy place to work either.
Against UCF, the Bears sacked the Knights seven times and held them in check for most of the night. The only real blemish was a literal last-minute 56-yard scamper by the backup quarterback.
Outside of that, UCF had effectively no rushing yards.
That’s also why the total feels so high at 50.5. If Baylor plays this one the way it played UCF, the UNDER is very much in play.
The money line paints an even clearer picture. A $330 bet on Baylor would return a $100 profit, while a $100 bet on Kansas would net $265 in profit. The pricing shows the oddsmakers are fairly confident in Baylor’s chances.
And for good reason. Baylor should win this game, and win it pretty handily.
Iowa State may have just knocked off Oklahoma State, but it now has to deal with a Bears defense that lives in the backfield and a secondary that’s tough to challenge through the air. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does explain why the Bears are favored the way they are.
In Other News...
Oklahoma State Just Made Its Big 12 Problem Even Worse
The Big 12 race tightened again after Week 9, and for Baylor, the latest shakeup only adds more urgency to a conference picture that keeps shifting around it. Utah stayed unbeaten with a decisive win over Cincinnati, Texas Tech and BYU both bounced back from earlier losses, and Iowa States high-scoring upset of Oklahoma State helped redraw the leagues middle tier in a hurry.
For a Baylor team trying to climb back into the conversation, the problem is that there are now fewer soft spots to target and fewer clear separations between the teams in the pack. With all 16 programs sorted in a fresh set of power rankings, the Bears are left measuring themselves against a conference where momentum can flip fast and one bad Saturday can send a contender sliding. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Just Got More Proof This Team Is Turning A Corner
Baylors trip to UCF brought more than a lopsided road win. It also delivered a fresh round of Big 12 recognition, with quarterback DJ Lagway earning Offensive Player of the Week and the Bears defensive line taking home Defensive Line of the Week honors after the 41-9 rout. Lagway matched his career high with four touchdown passes and finished 16 of 25 for 319 yards, while the front seven kept the pressure on all afternoon.
For a program still trying to show this start is about more than one good Saturday, the weekly awards matter because they reflect balance. Baylor has now picked up its fourth and fifth Big 12 weekly honors of the 2026 season, a sign that different parts of the roster are drawing league-wide notice at the same time. The bigger question is how long the Bears can keep stacking those kinds of performances as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Coaching Change Just Put Its 2027 Class On Edge
Dave Arandas firing has already started to ripple through Baylors recruiting board, and the first notable move came from linebacker Bryson Brown. The three-star prospect backed off his Baylor pledge and quickly flipped to Oklahoma State, a reminder that coaching changes can hit the youngest classes hardest before a new staff even has time to settle in.
Baylors 2027 class still has 12 pledges and sits at No. 73 nationally, but the real work now is keeping the rest of that group intact. Quarterback Babin, athlete Hoyt, offensive lineman Allen and safety Kirkland all look like the kinds of pieces a future staff will want to build around, both for what they have already shown and for how they could fit the roster needs ahead. [Read more 🡒]