Baylor heads into a late-night trip to Tempe with plenty of paths to a win - and just as many ways this thing can go sideways. The matchup with Arizona State carries a 9:30 CT kickoff and, for the Waco crowd, a finish that could push close to midnight. The Sun Devils may be favored because they’re at home, but this one does not look like a clean matchup on paper for either side.
One of the biggest swing points is whether Baylor’s defense can make Arizona State quarterback Cutter Boley miserable from the opening whistle. Boley threw for just 95 yards and had two pick-sixes against Kansas, and if Baylor brings the kind of pressure it has shown this season, he may not have much time to settle in. A quick-pass approach could be ASU’s best answer if Hosea Wheeler, Kyler Jordan and the rest of the Bears’ front start winning early.
On the other side, Baylor needs DJ Lagway to keep building toward a full, healthy workload. He was injured early in game one against Auburn, sat out the next two weeks, and had what the source describes as a solid outing against Colorado. If he can use his legs, that does more than help the Bears on the ground - it also opens up those “empty” spaces in the Arizona State defense that Baylor wants to attack.
That passing game could be a major weapon if the receivers do their part. Gavin Freeman, Dre'lon Miller, Louis Brown IV, Jayden McGowan, Jadon Porter, Taz Williams Jr., and the rest of the Baylor wideouts have the kind of skill that can change a game fast. If Baylor is going to control this one, completions to that group need to show up early and often.
McGowan, in particular, brings another possible game-breaking wrinkle. He already leads the Bears in touchdown receptions this season and also handles kick returns, which makes him a threat every time he touches the ball.
He has not scored on a punt return yet, but the source frames him as due. A return touchdown against Nick McLarty - whom ASU coach Kenny Dillingham called "one of the best in the country" - would be a jolt for Baylor and a punch to the home crowd.
Baylor also needs one of its running backs to get rolling for 100-plus yards. The exact name in the backfield matters less than the result: a functional run game.
That depends on the offensive line staying in sync, creating push and opening lanes. If that happens, the Bears put themselves in position to leave Tempe with a win.
But there are real warning signs, too. If Lagway never leaves the pocket, that could mean either the passing game is humming or his ankle still isn’t right. An immobile Lagway for a second straight game would be a problem if Arizona State can get pressure and mess with his rhythm.
The Baylor defense also has to avoid another third-quarter fade. The source notes that the Bears have looked rough defensively in the third and early fourth quarters this season, even if the score was manageable in tighter games like Auburn or already decided during the three-game stretch in Waco. Baylor cannot afford to go into halftime tied or trailing if the same issues show up again, especially if Arizona State starts finding room up the middle.
And then there are the numbers Baylor has to clean up: third-down conversions and yards per carry. The Bears have struggled in both areas this season, sitting just above 3 yards per rushing attempt and around 40% on third downs. The source makes the point bluntly - those kinds of numbers have never taken a Dave Aranda Baylor team to a bowl or playoff game.
However this one plays out, Baylor Bears on SI’s staff is still looking at the bigger picture: a chance for Baylor to move to 2-0 in Big 12 play.
In Other News...
Jerome Tang's Kansas State Split Just Got More Interesting For Baylor
Jerome Tangs return to Baylor has already added a familiar face to the Bears bench, but the financial aftermath from his exit at Kansas State is still unfolding in the background. Tang, now serving as Baylors associate head coach, was fired by the Wildcats in February after a difficult season start and a postgame rant Kansas State used to justify ending the relationship for cause, a move that also changed the value of his buyout.
Now the former Kansas State coach and the school are nearing a settlement worth roughly $12 million, with the figure reflecting adjustments tied to his new job. For Baylor, it is one more wrinkle in a split that has already crossed from the coaching carousel into the legal and financial side of the sport, and a reminder that Tangs Big 12 story is still very much being written. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor XC Gets An Unexpected Test After Travel Plans Fall Apart
Baylors mens and womens cross country teams got an unexpected detour this week when a flight cancellation forced a change in plans, sending them to Fayetteville, Arkansas, instead of their original destination in Terre Haute, Indiana. The Bears now head into the 38th annual Chile Pepper Cross Country Festival, where the men will run 8K and the women will tackle 5K against a field that includes several regional programs.
For Baylor, the meet brings a chance to keep building momentum with a full mens lineup for the second time this season and several key runners set to appear. It also drops the Bears into a different kind of test on short notice, with the season set to keep rolling soon in College Station and Stillwater. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Fans Should Remember The Star Who Changed Womens Golf
Before Baylor became a regular name in the national womens golf conversation, Hayley Davis was already helping set the standard. From 2011 to 2015, she was a central figure in the rise of the program, a player whose consistency and pressure-season value helped carry the Bears to multiple NCAA Championship appearances and all the way to a national runner-up finish in 2015.
Now Davis is headed into the Baylor Athletics Hall of Fame as part of the 2026 class, a fitting nod to a career that left its mark in more ways than one. She still owns the school records for single-season and career scoring averages, and her three All-Big 12 selections underscore just how important she was during one of the most successful stretches in program history. [Read more 🡒]